Market Expectations Survey (REM), October 2023
• By the end of October, REM analysts improved their forecast on GDP changes for the third quarter of 2023. They now consider that the economic activity expanded 2.3% during the July-September period.
• REM analysts forecast that unemployment is expected to remain close to the current historically low levels. The survey revealed that unemployment would have a share of 6.9% in the economically active population in the third quarter of 2023.
• REM analysts forecast the recovery of the surplus of the trade balance of goods in 2024. They expect that the exchange of goods with the rest of the world will imply a USD9,904 million surplus for next year.
• The monthly inflation rate in October was lower than the REM forecast. It turned out to be 1.7 p.p. lower than the one foretold.
• REM analysts predict a gradual increase of the interest rate in the months to come. Based on the REM, the monthly BADLAR interest rate (effective monthly rate on time deposits) will be 10.6% in November, to reach 11.5% in January 2024.
• REM analysts lowered the expected rise in the exchange rate for November. The projected average nominal exchange rate was ARS382/USD1; ARS17 less than in the previous survey.
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November 13, 2023
