Informe de Evolución del Mercado de Cambios y Balance Cambiario

This report analyzes the evolution of purchases and sales of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market, corresponding to January.

Main aspects

Again in January, the BCRA made net purchases through the foreign exchange market, this time for USD 159 million, which allowed international reserves to increase by USD 127 million in the month.

The world economy continues to go through a health and economic crisis in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, with impacts on both the level of global and local activity, trade flows and capital movements. In recent months, the BCRA has implemented regulatory modifications that affect the foreign exchange market in order to promote a more efficient allocation of foreign currency. In this context, the clients of the entities sold USD 188 million net in the foreign exchange market, which were purchased by the BCRA as mentioned and by the entities for USD 29 million. The National Treasury and the BCRA did not carry out exchange operations between them directly in January.

The real sector was a net seller of foreign currency for USD 582 million.

Within this group, the main sector in terms of net sales in historical terms in the foreign exchange market, “Oilseeds and Cereals”, recorded net revenues of USD 2,045 million, showing an increase of 25% compared to those recorded in the same period of 2020. The net income from Goods of the sector was about USD 400 million below the net customs flows of the month, which would imply some reduction in the level of commercial debt of the sector.

The “Real Sector excluding Oilseeds and Cereals”, on the other hand, was a net buyer in the foreign exchange market with a total of USD 1,463 million. The purchases were mainly intended to make payments for goods and services, and to pay off financial debt.

“Individuals” bought USD 277 million net, basically for hoarding (USD 137 million in banknotes, with a decrease of 13% compared to the previous month), and for expenses made with cards for consumption with non-resident suppliers (about USD 105 million, with a drop of 50% compared to the same month of the previous year, in the context of the continuity of the COVID-19 pandemic).

The “Institutional investors and others” sector, both residents and non-residents, made net purchases in the month for USD 26 million.

The foreign exchange current account, which includes net flows from net exports of goods and services and primary and secondary income, registered a surplus of USD 417 million, mainly explained by net sales of “Goods”, partially offset by net purchases of “Primary income” and “Services”.

The foreign exchange financial account of the “Non-Financial Private Sector” had a deficit of USD 366 million, as a result of net cancellations of financial debt and purchases of banknotes by individuals, partly offset by net income from foreign direct investment.

The operations of the foreign exchange financial account of the “Financial Sector” resulted in a surplus of USD 314 million, explained by the decrease in the liquid foreign assets of the entities that make up the General Exchange Position (PGC) by USD 320 million, partially offset by the net cancellations of financial debt and credit lines.

The operations of the foreign exchange financial account of the “General Government and BCRA” resulted in a deficit of USD 556 million, mainly explained by the net cancellation of financial debt.