External Sector

Report on the Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Market and the Foreign Exchange Balance

January

2004

Published on Feb 2, 2004

This report analyzes the evolution of purchases and sales of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market, corresponding to January 2004.

The result of foreign exchange operations with customers in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC)2, as can be seen in the following summary table, was again positive in the first month of 2004. Its absorption, to a large extent, by the Central Bank, together with the positive net flows from operations with international organizations, resulted in a new significant increase in international reserves. As a result, as of January 30, 2004, the amount of the Central Bank’s international reserves (US$ 14,920 million) was already at levels similar to those of the last quarter of 2001.

The significant net balance of foreign exchange transactions linked to foreign trade continues to be the decisive factor in the positive result of the exchange balance. Both exports and imports are expanding rapidly, although the latter, at the pace of the recovery of economic activity in the country, are growing faster.

Seasonal factors that influenced both variations in the demand for local money – very high in the months of December – and in that of foreign banknotes – in this case for tourism abroad – and regulatory changes in line with the normalization process initiated in December 2002, constituted the fundamental causes why the net formation of foreign assets of the non-financial private sector implied net outflows similar to those of January of 2003. Gross demand for total foreign assets had a clear intra-month downward trend, reaching in the fourth week the average daily minimum of a statistical week since December 2002.

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