Monthly report on the evolution of the monetary base, international reserves and foreign exchange market.
1-Synthesis
In September, the broad monetary aggregate private M3 presented, in nominal terms and without seasonality, an increase of 2.5%, which was the lowest since December 2019. This implies that at constant prices it would continue to remain relatively stable. Within it, demand deposits made a negative contribution to the growth of the month, unlike time deposits, which completed five consecutive months of expansion. Meanwhile, the contribution of the circulating currency held by the public would have been nil.
The average monthly growth of time placements in the private sector was 6%, accumulating an increase of more than 80% in the last 12 months. In real terms, the increase for the month would be 3.5%, while the year-on-year rate of change registered an all-time high at around 30%.
The board of directors of the BCRA decided to raise, as of October, the interest rate with which it remunerates 1-day passive passes by 5 p.p., bringing it to 24%. Thus, it seeks to increase the attractiveness of short-term local currency financial instruments. Within the framework of the update of the Monetary Policy guidelines, the BCRA said that it will manage the stock of LELIQ in order to minimize the impact of the rise in the rate of passive passes on the cost of sterilization. In this context, the monetary authority ordered that as of October, financial institutions must reduce their net surplus position in LELIQ by 20 p.p. compared to that registered in September.
Loans in pesos to the private sector registered a monthly expansion of 2.5% in nominal terms and without seasonality, driven mainly by lines with a mainly commercial destination. In real terms, they would have remained stable.
Among the lines promoted by the BCRA in the framework of the health emergency, the line for working capital to MSMEs and Health Service Providers stands out, which at the end of September accumulated disbursements of $483,084 million. This implied an average monthly growth of 19% in the amounts disbursed. Thus, loans in pesos to the private sector accumulated a nominal growth of 33% s.e. (12.7% real) between March and September.
Complementing the measures already adopted to alleviate the financial burden on families in the context of the pandemic, the BCRA extended until December that unpaid financing installments (excluding credit cards) must be incorporated at the end of the life of the loan, only compensatory interest can be charged at the contractual rate.
