Monthly report on the evolution of the monetary base, international reserves and foreign exchange market.
Summary
In July, the private M3 broad monetary aggregate in real terms and without seasonality, continued to moderate its pace of expansion from the peak observed in April. Time deposits accounted for most of the growth in the aggregate for
the second consecutive month, while payment methods continued to decrease their contribution.
The evolution of term placements reflected the positive impact of the minimum interest rate scheme, ensuring positive remuneration in real terms for all private sector depositors. Thus, in July time deposits completed a monthly growth of 7.4% at current prices, which implied an increase of 4.7% at constant prices. Although they softened their pace of expansion compared to May and June, these growth rates are still historically high, both in nominal and real terms.
Moving forward with its policy of protecting savings in national currency, the BCRA decided to raise, as of August, the floor on the interest rate that financial institutions must pay for time deposits in pesos of individuals for up to $1 million, from 79% to 87% of the monetary policy rate. Thus, retail savers will receive a minimum remuneration of 33.06% n.a. (38.57% e.a.) for their contributions.
In addition, the BCRA increased to 0.75 the coefficient that determines the fixed prepayment rate of deposits with an early cancellation option in UVA, increasing this interest rate from 26.6% to 28.5%.
Loans in pesos to the private sector maintained a high rate of expansion in July, although they continued to moderate from the peak reached in April. In nominal terms and without seasonality, the expansion was 3.5% monthly (0.9% at constant prices). This increase was mainly driven by credit card financing, which completed an average monthly increase, without seasonality, of 9.2% nominal (6.5% real). Among the factors that contributed to its growth are loans at 0 rate and the increase in financing with the “Ahora 12” program, the latter recently showed an expansion given their preferential conditions in a context of recomposition of household consumption.
Among the commercial lines, the associated lines promoted by the BCRA in the economic emergency stand out. The line to MSMEs and Health Service Providers accumulated disbursements of $343,777 million at rates below 24% at rates below 24%, of which $8,300 million corresponded to health service providers. The rest of the financing to MSMEs was distributed as follows: 48% to working capital (excluding salaries), 29% to coverage of deferred checks and the remaining 23% to other destinations. For its part, the MSME Plus line, aimed at companies without bank financing, with data as of July 31, served 4,193 companies, of which 3,239 did so with FOGAR guarantees. The total amount granted was $1,828 million and $187 million that have already been approved remain to be disbursed.
