Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Monthly monitoring of the main macroeconomic forecasts on inflation, activity, exchange rate, rates and external indicators.

Executive summary

This report, published on November 7, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between October 29 and 31, 2025, involving 42 participants, including 30 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.
In the tenth survey of the year, those who participated in the REM estimated a monthly inflation of 2.2% for October (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) reported inflation of 2.3% monthly for October (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for October at 2.1% (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 2.2% monthly for October (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the last months of 2025, headline inflation is
projected at around 2.0% per month, while it would return to a downward monthly path from December until reaching 1.6% in April 2026.
In the October survey, the REM analysts estimated that in the third quarter of the year seasonally adjusted GDP would have fallen 0.5% compared to the second quarter of 2025 (0.1 p.p. of a smaller drop compared to the previous REM) and they project that it will grow 0.3% in the Quarter. IV-25 (0.2 p.p. less than the previous REM) and then accelerate to 1.0% in the Trim. I-26. By 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 3.9% higher than the average for 2024 (ditto previous REM). Those who make up the Top 10 also projected, on average, a growth of 4.0% in the year.
The open unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.5% of the Economically Active Population (ditto previous REM). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 7.2% in the last quarter of 2025 (the same as the previous REM).
The Top 10 expects the same (7.2%), which implies an increase of 0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM.
REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for November of 40.6% TNA (+0.8 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 3.3%. By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 35.0% nominal annual (-1.3 p.p. vs. the previous REM), equivalent to a TEM of 2.9%.
The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,463 per dollar for the November 2025 average (-$36.5/USD against the previous REM). For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for November is $1,475/USD. For December 2025, all participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,500/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 47.0% (-3.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM).
Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD84,732 million (USD1,184 million more than the previous survey)
and imports (CIF) USD76,445 million (USD1,145 million more than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD8,287 million (USD39 million more than the previous REM).
Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $13.2 trillion by 2025 (-150 billion compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $14.1 trillion.
No participant expects a primary surplus of less than $10 trillion for this year.