Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Monthly monitoring of the main macroeconomic forecasts on inflation, activity, exchange rate, rates and external indicators.

Executive summary

This report, published on June 5, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between May 28 and 30, 2025, including 42 participants, including 31 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 11 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the fifth survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.1% for May (-0.7 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) forecast inflation of 2.0% per month for May (-0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for May at 2.2% (-0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 2.3% monthly for May (-0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the following months, downward paths of monthly inflation are expected for both the general CPI and the core component.

In the May survey, the REM analysts estimated that seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP between January and March would have grown 1.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 (-0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and project that it will slow down to a growth rate of 0.2% in the Quarter.

II25 and then expanded 0.7% quarterly between July and September. For the whole of 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 5.2% higher than the average for 2024 (0.1 p.p. more increase compared to the previous REM).
Meanwhile, those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 5.1% in the year (-0.4 p.p.). The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (ditto previous REM). For the Top 10, the unemployment rate would also have stood at 7.0%, 0.1 p.p. higher than the previous REM. The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 6.5% in the last quarter of 2025 (the same as in the previous REM).

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for June of 33.0% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.7%). By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 27.1% nominal annual (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.2%).

The median of the nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,167 per dollar for the average of June 2025. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for June is $1,165/USD. For December 2025, all participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,300/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 27.4% (-2.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD82,761 million (USD49 million less than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD75,000 million (USD2,001 million more than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD7,761 million (USD2,050 million less than the last REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM stood at $13.4 billion for 2025 ($0.4 billion higher than the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $14.2 trillion. No participant expects a primary deficit for this year.