Market Expectations Survey (REM)

This report, published on July 6, 2026, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between June 26 and 30, 2026, involving 44 participants, including 32 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the sixth survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.0% for June (-0.1 p.p. than the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) reported inflation of 1.9% monthly for June (-0.2 p.p. than the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for June at 1.9% (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 also estimated core inflation of 1.9% monthly for the sixth month of the year (-0.2 p.p. in relation to the previous REM).

In the June survey, the REM analysts estimated that seasonally adjusted output (s.e.) would have expanded 0.6% in the quarter. II-26 (-0.6 p.p. compared to the previous survey) and would increase 0.9% in Quarter. III-26 (-0.1 p.p. in relation to the previous survey). For the Trim. IV-26 The growth projection s.e. of the REM analysts as a whole was also 0.9%. By 2026, those who participated in the REM expect on average a real GDP level 3.0% higher than the average for 2025 (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey). Those who make up the Top 10 also projected a growth of 3.0% for the year 2026 (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the second quarter of 2026 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.7% of the Economically Active Population (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 7.5% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey). For its part, the Top 10 estimated rates of 7.6% and 7.5% for the second and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for July of 22.50% TNA (-0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 1.85%. By December 2026, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 22.0% nominal annual (-0.1 p.p. in relation to the previous REM), equivalent to a TEM of 1.81%. The Top 10 forecast that the TAMAR rate will stand at 22.8% TNA and 23.1% TNA, by June and December 2026, respectively.

The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,482 per dollar for the July 2026 average (+$35/USD compared to the previous REM). For December 2026, the group of participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,673/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 15.5% compared to December 2025. For the Top 10 analysts, the expected average nominal exchange rate for December would be $1,621/USD.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2026 exports (FOB) will total USD100,000 million (+USD1,453 million compared to the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD76,400 million (-USD1,963 million compared to the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus would be USD23,600 million (USD3,415 million more than in the previous REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $15.7 trillion for 2026 (-300 billion compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecast a primary surplus of $15.8 trillion. No participant expected a primary surplus of less than $9.0 trillion for this year.