Market Expectations Survey (REM)

This report, published on July 6, 2026, discloses the results of the survey conducted from June 26 to June 30, 2026. It includes estimates from 44 analysts, 32 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the sixth survey of 2026, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.0% for June (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted a monthly inflation rate of 1.9% for June (-0.2 p.p. against the previous REM). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants estimated 1.9% for June (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts expected a monthly core inflation rate of 1.9% for June (-0.2 p.p. against the previous REM).

In June’s survey, REM analysts estimated that, in seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP would have expanded 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026 (-0.6 p.p. compared to the previous survey), and that it would improve 0.9% in the third quarter of 2026 (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Subsequently, REM analysts also forecast a 0.9% s.a. growth for the fourth quarter of 2026. For 2026, REM analysts forecast an increase of 3.0%, on average, in real GDP compared to the average for 2025 (+0.1 p.p. against the previous survey). In turn, top-10 analysts also forecast a rise of 3.0% in GDP for 2026 (+0.2 p.p. against the previous REM).

The estimate for the unemployment rate in the economically active population was 7.7% for the second quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. against the previous survey), while REM analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 7.5% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). As for top-10 analysts, they forecast rates of 7.6% and 7.5% for the second and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast that the TAMAR rate at private banks would be 22.5% APR (-0.3 p.p. against the previous REM) in July. This translates into an effective monthly rate of 1.85%. REM analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 22.0% APR (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM) in December 2026, representing a 1.81% EMR. Top-10 analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 22.8% APR and 23.1% APR in June and December 2026, respectively.

The median forecasts predict that the nominal exchange rate for July 2026 would average ARS1,482/USD (+ARS35/USD against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,673/USD in December 2026, i.e., an expected 15.5% y.o.y. change vis-à-vis December 2025. In turn, top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,621/USD for December.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD100,000 million (USD1,453 million more than in the previous REM), and CIF imports would amount to USD76,400 million (USD1,963 million less than in the previous REM) in 2026. The expected annual trade surplus would total USD23,600 million (up USD3,415 million against the previous REM).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS15.7 trillion for 2026 (-ARS300 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS15.8 trillion for 2026. None of the analysts expected a primary surplus below ARS9.0 trillion for 2026.