Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Monthly monitoring of the main macroeconomic forecasts on inflation, economic activity, exchange rate, interest rates and external indicators.

Executive Summary

This report, published on February 5, 2026, discloses the results of the survey conducted from January 28 to January 30, 2026. It includes estimates from 45 analysts, 33 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the first survey of 2026, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.4% for January (+0.4 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) also predicted a monthly inflation rate of 2.4% for January (+0.3 p.p. against the previous REM).
Regarding the core CPI, REM participants estimated 2.4% for January (+0.4 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts also estimated a monthly core inflation rate of 2.4% for January (+0.3 p.p. against the previous REM).

In January’s survey, REM analysts estimated that, in seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP would have grown 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 vis-à-vis the third quarter (-0.3 p.p. against the previous REM). They also forecast that GDP would improve 0.9% in the first quarter of 2026, and 1.0% in the second quarter of 2026 (unchanged against the previous REM). Analysts forecast an increase of 3.2%, on average, in real GDP for 2026 compared to the average for 2025 (-0.3 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts forecast a rise of 2.7%, on average, in GDP for 2026 (-0.6 p.p. against the previous REM).

The estimate for the unemployment rate in the economically active population was 6.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025 (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 6.6% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (-0.3 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts expect a 6.7% rate for both quarters.

REM participants forecast that the TAMAR rate at private banks would be 31.8% APR (+4.3 p.p. against the previous REM) in February. This translates into an effective monthly rate of 2.6%. REM analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 22.4% APR (+1.4 p.p. against the previous REM) in December 2026, representing a 1.8% EMR. As for top-10 analysts, they expect rates of 31.4% APR and 23.3% APR, respectively.

The median forecasts predict that the nominal exchange rate for February 2026 would average ARS1,475/USD (-ARS39.7/USD against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,750/USD in December 2026, i.e., an expected 20.9% y.o.y. change. In turn, top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,752/USD for the same month.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD91,885 million (USD478 million more than in the previous REM), and CIF imports would amount to USD80,710 million (USD268 million more than in the previous REM) in 2026. The expected annual trade surplus is USD11,175 million (up USD210 million against the previous REM).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS16.0 trillion for 2026 (+ARS18 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS15.5 trillion for 2026. None of the analysts expected a primary surplus below ARS9.0 trillion for 2026.