Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Monthly monitoring of the main macroeconomic forecasts on inflation, activity, exchange rate, rates and external indicators.

Executive Summary

This report, published on February 5, 2026, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between January 28 and 30, 2026, involving 45 participants, including 33 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the last survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.4% for January (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) also reported inflation of 2.4% monthly for January (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM).
Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for January at 2.4% (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation also of 2.4% monthly for January (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

In the January survey, the REM analysts estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2025 seasonally adjusted GDP would have grown 0.1% compared to the third quarter (-0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). They project that it will also grow 0.9% in the Quarter. I-26 and 1.0% in Trim. II-26 (both unchanged
from the previous REM). For 2026, they expect an average level of real GDP 3.2% higher than the average for 2025 (-0.3 p.p. than the previous REM). Those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 2.7% for the year 2026 (-0.6 p.p. than the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 6.7% of the Economically Active Population (-0.1 p.p. than the previous REM). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 (-0.3 p.p. than the previous REM). For its part, the Top 10 forecasts a rate of 6.7% for both periods.

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for February of 31.8% TNA (+4.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.6%. By December 2026, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 22.4% nominal annual (+1.4 p.p. in relation to the previous REM), equivalent to a TEM of 1.8%. The Top 10 forecasts 31.4% TNA and 23.3% TNA, respectively.

The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,475 per dollar for the February 2026 average (-$39.7/USD against the previous REM). For December 2026, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,750/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 20.9%. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for December is $1,752/USD.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those participating in the REM projected that by 2026 exports (FOB) will total USD91,885 million (USD478 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD80,710 million (USD268 million more than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD11,175 million (USD210 million more than in the previous REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $16.0 billion for 2026 (+18 billion compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $15.5 trillion. No participant expects a primary surplus of less than $9.0 trillion for this year.