Market Expectations Survey (REM)

This report, published on September 4, 2026, discloses the results of the survey conducted from August 27 to August 31, 2026. It includes estimates from 47 analysts, 35 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the eighth survey of 2026, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 1.7% for August (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) also predicted a monthly inflation rate of 1.7% for August (unchanged against the previous REM). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants estimated 1.7% for August (the same figure as in the previous survey). Top-10 analysts expected a monthly core inflation rate of 1.6% for August (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM).

In August’s survey, REM analysts estimated that, in seasonally-adjusted (s.a.) terms, GDP would have contracted 0.9% in the second quarter of 2026 (-0.5 p.p. compared to the previous survey), and that it would improve 1.1% in the third quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Subsequently, REM analysts forecast 1.3% s.a. growth for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For 2026, REM analysts forecast an average increase of 2.1% in real GDP, compared to the average for 2025 (-0.6 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts also forecast a rise of 2.2% in GDP for 2026 (-0.4 p.p. against the previous REM).

The estimate for the unemployment rate in the economically active population was 7.7% for the second quarter of 2026 (the same figure as in the previous survey), while REM analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 7.5% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (just the same as in the previous REM). As for top-10 analysts, they forecast rates of 7.6% for both the second and fourth quarters of 2026.

REM participants forecast that the TAMAR rate at private banks would be 24.11% APR (+1.4 p.p. against the previous REM) in September. This translates into an effective monthly rate of 1.98%. REM analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 23.45% APR (+1.3 p.p. against the previous REM) in December 2026, representing a 1.93% EMR. Top-10 analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 24.1% APR and 23.2% APR in September and December 2026, respectively.

The median forecasts predict that the nominal exchange rate for September 2026 would average ARS1,530/USD (-ARS15.80/USD against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,630/USD in December 2026, i.e., an expected 12.6% y.o.y. change vis-à-vis December 2025. In turn, top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,626/USD for December.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD100,895 million (USD688 million more than in the previous REM), and CIF imports would amount to USD75,861 million (USD912 million less than in the previous REM) in 2026. The expected annual trade surplus would total USD25,034 million (up USD1,600 million against the previous REM).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS15.4 trillion for 2026 (-ARS154 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS14.7 trillion for 2026. None of the analysts expected a primary surplus below ARS9.0 trillion for 2026.