Market Expectations Survey (REM)

This report, published on June 4, 2026, discloses the results of the survey conducted from May 27 to May 29, 2026. It includes estimates from 46 analysts, 34 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the fifth survey of 2026, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.3% for May (unchanged against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) also predicted a monthly inflation rate of 2.3% for May (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants estimated 2.2% for May (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts expected a monthly core inflation rate of 2.3% for May (-0.2 p.p. against the previous REM).

In May’s survey, REM analysts estimated that, in seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP would have expanded 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026, and that it would improve 1.2% in the second quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. and +0.2 p.p. against the previous REM, respectively). Subsequently, REM analysts forecast a 0.9% s.a. growth for the third quarter of 2026 (unchanged against the previous REM). For 2026, REM analysts forecast an increase of 2.9%, on average, in real GDP compared to the average for 2025 (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts forecast a rise of 2.8%, on average, in GDP for 2026 (+0.2 p.p. against the previous REM).

The estimate for the unemployment rate in the economically active population was 7.7% for the first quarter of 2026 (unchanged against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (just the same as in the previous REM). As for top-10 analysts, they forecast rates of 7.8% and 7.4% for the first and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast that the TAMAR rate at private banks would be 22.75% APR (-0.2 p.p. against the previous REM) in June. This translates into an effective monthly rate of 1.87%. REM analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 22.1% APR (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM) in December 2026, representing a 1.82% EMR. Top-10 analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 22.2% APR and 21.7% APR in June and December 2026, respectively.

The median forecasts predict that the nominal exchange rate for June 2026 would average ARS1,422/USD (-ARS15/USD against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,658/USD in December 2026, i.e., an expected 14.5% y.o.y. change. In turn, top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,596/USD for December.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD98,547 million (USD2,491 million more than in the previous REM), and CIF imports would amount to USD78,363 million (USD1,187 million less than in the previous REM) in 2026. The expected annual trade surplus would total USD20,185 million (up USD3,679 million against the previous REM).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS16.0 trillion for 2026 (+ARS100 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS15.7 trillion for 2026. None of the analysts expected a primary surplus below ARS9.0 trillion for 2026.