Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM)

We publish the results of the (period) survey with the main macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of selected variables

This report, published on February 6, 2024, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between January 29 and 31, 2024. Forecasts from 37 participants were considered, including 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 13 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the first survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 21.9% for January (-3.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For February, they estimated monthly inflation of 18.0% and for the year of 227.0% y.o.y. (-0.2 p.p. and +14.0 p.p. in relation to the previous survey, respectively). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top-10) expected inflation of 21.3% for January, 16.5% for February and 207.4% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for 2024 at 231.8% YoY.

In the January survey, REM analysts projected for 2024 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 3.0% lower than the average for 2023, worsening the outlook by 0.4 p.p. compared to the previous survey. This deterioration is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which REM respondents reduced their forecast by 0.4 p.p. Meanwhile, those who make up the Top-10 projected, on average, a reduction of 2.8% in the year. By 2025, the REM participants as a whole estimated an average growth of 2.8% YoY.

The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of the year was projected at 7.7% of the Economically Active Population (PEA, +0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the Top-10, the unemployment rate would have stood at 7.0% in the same period. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 7.8% for the last quarter of 2024.

For February, REM participants forecast a BADLAR rate of private banks of 109.00% TNA, equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 9.0%. Those who make up the Top-10 predicted, on average, that it would stand at 108.13% in the month of February.

REM analysts forecast the nominal exchange rate at $839.7 per dollar for the February 2024 average (-$30.4 per dollar compared to the previous REM). For the Top-10 the average nominal exchange rate expected for Feb-24 is $849.3/USD. The year-on-year variation as of Dec-24 implied in the forecasts stood at 164.9%, 0.1 p.p. higher than the previous REM.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM estimated that by 2024 exports (FOB) will total USD82,875 million and imports (CIF) USD66,912 million, both correcting downwards compared to the previous survey (-USD1,077 million and -USD2,461 million, respectively).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) made by REM participants stood at $881.1 billion for 2024 (+ $214.7 billion compared to the previous REM). The average of the Top-10 reaches a primary surplus of $3,723.3 billion by 2024.