Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM)

Monthly monitoring of the main macroeconomic forecasts on inflation, activity, exchange rate, rates and external indicators.

Executive summary

This report, published on January 7, 2026, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between December 23 and 30, 2025, including 44 participants, including 32 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the last survey of the year, those who participated in the REM estimated a monthly inflation of 2.3% for December (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) also reported inflation of 2.4% monthly for December (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for December at 2.3% (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation also of 2.3% monthly for December (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the first month of 2026, general inflation is projected at 2.0% (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM), with analysts predicting that it will continue on a downward path that extends until June-26, when monthly inflation reaches 1.5%.

In the December survey, the REM analysts estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2025 seasonally adjusted GDP would have grown 0.4% compared to the third quarter (-0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). They project that it will also grow 0.9% in the Quarter. I-26 (unchanged from the previous REM) and 1.0% in Trim. II-26. For 2026, they expect an average level of real GDP 3.5% higher than the average for 2025 (+0.1 p.p. than the previous REM). Those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 3.3% for the year 2026 (the same value as in the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 6.8% of the Economically Active Population (-0.4 p.p. than the previous REM). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2026 (-0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). On the other hand, the Top 10 also corrected downwards, forecasting a rate of 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 (-0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM)

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for December of 28.1% TNA (-2.20 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.34%. By December 2026, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 21.0% nominal annual (+0.1 p.p. vs. the previous REM), equivalent to a TEM of 1.75%.

The median of the nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,484.3 per dollar for the average of January 2026 (-$16.7/USD against the previous REM), which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 42.2%. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for December is $1,490.8/USD. For December 2026, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,753/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 21.0%.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2026 exports (FOB) will total USD91,407 million (USD907 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD80,442 million (USD1,056 million less than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD10,965 million (USD1,963 million more than in the previous REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $16.0 trillion by 2026 (+273 billion compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $15.3 trillion. No participant expects a primary surplus of less than $7.6 trillion for this year.