Informe de Inflación

Summary

The world economy continues to grow, although at a slower pace than expected a quarter ago, a dynamic that
is also reflected in international trade volumes. Emerging countries are the main drivers of
global growth, which is mainly threatened by the difficulties that some advanced economies are experiencing.
This process is taking place in a context in which the evolution of food and energy prices accelerated the
growth of core inflation, giving rise to different economic policy reactions. In a context of greater
uncertainty, contractionary measures related to fiscal sustainability in advanced countries and to the containment
of inflationary pressures in emerging countries could lead to a lower dynamism in global growth.
In the United States, in recent months, the slowdown in the expansion of economic activity has been greater, consistent
with the fragility of the performance of the real estate, financial, and labor markets, which are still unable to
recover in a context of slow asset recomposition. Likewise, the decline in Japan’s industrial production,
caused by the earthquake and tsunami that occurred in March of this year, also affects its main trading partners,
including the United States. In addition, the difficulties in reaching a consensus on the medium-term
path of U.S. fiscal policy increase uncertainty about the evolution of the world’s largest economy.
In the euro area, macroeconomic dynamics continue to diverge on the basis of the heterogeneous
behaviour of Germany and France, on the one hand, and other countries with strong macroeconomic imbalances, different relative trends
in competitiveness, low growth rates (or even further declines in output) and high unemployment.
Recently, the problems of sovereign financing and the financial systems of some
countries in the region have deepened, increasing the risk of a financial crisis in other advanced countries that
will affect the process of global growth. On the other hand, in view of the evolution of inflation, in a context of fragile growth recovery
and differentiating itself from the policies being adopted in other advanced countries, the European Central
Bank once again raised the reference interest rate of monetary policy.
Within developing regions, emerging Asia and Latin America show strong economic performance, led
mainly by domestic demand. To contain the influence of high food and
energy prices and in some cases prevent the formation of financial bubbles, the economic authorities implemented regulations
on short-term capital inflows and contractionary bias policies, in a context of significant appreciations
of their currencies.
Commodity prices show some stabilization at elevated levels. This recent dynamic is explained by
the uncertainty regarding the global trajectory of the economy, accompanied by unfavorable economic data from the
main advanced countries demanding these products and, in the case of agricultural products, by the projections of greater
supply due to abundant harvests, partially offset by a higher expected demand, associated with the consumption of
commodities in emerging regions.
In summary, although the projections remained relatively stable with respect to the previous Inflation Report, if
the trends of recent months prevail for the remainder of 2011, the international context will present a weaker trajectory
than expected at present, both in terms of growth and international trade.