Institutional Outlook
Since the launch of Stage 4 of the economic stabilization program and with the aim of enhancing transparency and communication of the monetary scheme, the BCRA resumes the publication of its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (IPOM). The publication begins with the volume corresponding to the last quarter of 2025, and adopts the standard communication practices followed by leading central banks.
In the IPOM, the BCRA shares its diagnosis of the domestic and international macroeconomic situation, presents an assessment of its outlook, and systematically explains the monetary policy decisions adopted in order to achieve its price stability objective. The report is structured into chapters that address the macroeconomic context, price dynamics, and the conduct of monetary policy, supplemented by thematic boxes and technical annexes for a more in-depth quantitative analysis of specific topics. This approach aims at a better understanding of the interplay among monetary policy, the formation of private‑sector expectations, and general macroeconomic balance.
Unlike other stabilization experiences, the current program has delivered steady progress in correcting the main inherited macroeconomic imbalances while honoring pre‑existing contractual obligations. The achievement of fiscal balance, the elimination of monetary financing of the Treasury, the correction of relative price distortions, and the BCRA’s balance sheet cleanup have contributed to a reduction in inflation and enabled the removal of foreign exchange restrictions. The consistency of the fiscal, monetary, and foreign exchange policies adopted has allowed the economy to converge toward its short‑term balance, while the prospect of structural reforms strengthens expectations regarding its long‑term sustainability. In this context, the BCRA will continue to make progress on the regulations aimed at fostering the efficient and prudent development of the currency competition regime.
The BCRA has adopted a monetary aggregates control regime as an anchor of the nominal evolution of the economy. This decision is aligned with similar successful stabilization experiences for developing economies. It also takes into account the specific features of an economy undergoing a post‑crisis transition and marked by a high degree of dollarization, in which the transmission mechanisms of interest rates, the exchange rate, and the amount of money differ from those observed in steady‑state economies. Within this framework, monetary policy will aim to ensure that money supply closely accompanies the recovery of real money demand.
The BCRA considers that conditions are in place to prioritize meeting the money demand through the purchase of foreign currency during 2026, thereby supporting the objective of building up international reserves. This diagnosis indicates a marked decline in the potential conflicts and trade-offs among economic objectives, representing a clear contrast with the adverse conditions that characterized the 2024–2025 period. Nevertheless, in an environment where global and domestic conditions evolve continuously, the multiplicity of economic policy objectives continues to pose challenges for monetary policy management. In accordance with the mandate established in its Charter, the Board of the BCRA remains committed to safeguarding price stability, using all the monetary policy tools available.
