By: Tamara Burdisso, María Paula Donaldson
October 2018
Abstract:
The seasonal adjustment seeks to quantify and remove systematic fluctuations occurred in the year that are associated with weather factors, social and cultural aspects and/or number of business days, as these make it harder to correctly interpret short-term and long-term movements. These regular movements, year after year, give rise to a seasonal pattern in the series and are predictable with a high degree of confidence.
The BCRA has a long record of seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates. The following technical note summarizes the main aspects of the seasonal adjustment of the monetary base, the seasonally-adjusted monthly contribution to nominal changes in the monetary base and the seasonal factors projected by the end of 2018 and 2019.
