The Working Papers are pre-publications of academic articles prepared by the Central Bank’s economists. Aimed at an academic and professional audience.
They are also redistributed through RepEc (IDEAS and EconPapers) and the Bank for International Settlements.
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MIDAS Modeling for Core Inflation Forecasting
Author: Luis Libonatti.
Summary:
A forecasting exercise is presented to assess the predictive potential of a daily price index based on online prices, compiled by web scrapping by the private company PriceStats in cooperation with a finance research corporation, State Street Global Markets, as a predictor for a measure of the monthly core inflation rate in Argentina, known as “resto IPCBA” and published by the Statistics Office of the Government of the City of Buenos Aires…
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Assessment of core inflation measures for Argentina
Authors: Mauricio Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre and Constanza Matarrelli
Summary:
In this paper, statistical measures of core inflation are calculated, including the principal component method, the truncated averages method, and the indices reweighted for persistence and volatility, for the consumer price index (CPI) of the City of Buenos Aires, the City of Córdoba, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the City of Buenos Aires.
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Study of the seasonality of the CPI general level and its components
Authors: Tamara Burdisso, Emilio Blanco and Paula Donaldson
Summary
In order to study the potential existence of seasonality in the consumer price index, different sub-periods between 1992 and 2016 are analyzed, for the general level of the CPI and for different decompositions of the index and even with a three-digit disaggregation of the CPI…
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Nowcasting GDP in Argentina: Comparing the Predictive Ability of Different Models
Authors: Emilio Blanco, Laura D’Amato, Fiorella Dogliolo and Lorena Garegnani
Summary:
Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with significant delay, central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions…
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Exports of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin in Argentina
Author: Luis Lanteri
Summary
This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in exports of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin in Argentina, using structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction model) and annual data covering the period 1980-2016.
