The CPI for San Luis, and the wholesale price index and the construction cost index released by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC), along with the inflation expectations surveyed by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) were made available in the past week. The results of the first ones were as follows:
| August | September | October | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI San Luis | Headline | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Wholesale price system | IPIM | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| IPIB | 2.9 | 0.3 | -0.1 | |
| IPP | 2.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 | |
| Construction cost | ICC | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Retail inflation in San Luis exhibited a similar performance to other districts, with September’s records lower than July’s and higher than August’s.
In turn, wholesale price inflation and construction cost inflation remained at very low levels for the second month in a row.
As for inflation expectations as surveyed by UTDT, the median of national inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 20% as in September (25% in August). These expectations have not recorded 20% or less for two months in a row since October 2009.
Likewise, estimates and high-frequency indicators from public and private sources monitored by the BCRA show that prices in October are in line with the disinflation path set by the monetary authority
Beyond the clear disinflation process of recent months, inflation expectations for 2017 of the Market Expectations Survey (Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado, REM) carried out by the BCRA are three points above the upper end of the target range of 12% to 17%.
Thus, the BCRA has decided to keep both the monetary policy rate (at 26.75%) and the repo rates unchanged. This measure seeks to consolidate this year’s disinflation process and help inflation expectations for 2017 converge to the announced targets.
The BCRA will continue to take anti-inflationary measures to ensure a sustained disinflationary process to achieve the objective for this year (1.5% monthly inflation rate or lower in the last quarter), and a decreasing trend of inflation expectations for 2017.
