In the last week, the inflation data of the IPC GBA, published by INDEC, the IPC CABA, published by the City of Buenos Aires, and the IPC Córdoba, published by the Province of Córdoba, were released. The results of the last months were the following:
| July | August | September | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBA | General Level | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Core | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | |
| CABA | General Level | 2.2 | -0.8 | 1.3 |
| Core | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | |
| CORODBA | General Level | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| Core | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
As can be seen in the table, the general level inflation indicators differ from those of core inflation, largely due to changes in regulated prices. The Supreme Court’s decision, which suspended the increases in tariffs, reduced the inflation rates for August and September. On the other hand, the increases already defined by the government will increase the inflation rates for October and, to a lesser extent, November.
In this context of regulated price volatility, core inflation becomes more relevant, showing a clear trend of disinflation during the third quarter of the year.
Likewise, the estimates and high-frequency indicators from state and private sources monitored by the Central Bank show an evolution of prices during the month of October in line with the disinflation path foreseen by the monetary authority.
Beyond the clear disinflation process of recent months, inflation expectations for the year 2017 from the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the BCRA are three points above the upper limit of the established target of 12% to 17%.
Therefore, in order to consolidate the disinflation that has already occurred this year and to advance in the process of convergence of inflation expectations for 2017 towards the announced targets, the Central Bank decided to maintain its monetary policy rate at 26.75% and leave its pass rates unchanged.
The BCRA will continue to maintain a clear anti-inflationary bias to ensure that the disinflation process continues towards its target for this year of a monthly inflation of 1.5% or lower in the last quarter and that inflation expectations for 2017 decrease
