Market Expectations Survey (REM)

The forecasts included in the REM are not projections made by the BCRA.

This survey enables a systematic monitoring of the main short- and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of the Argentine economy, based on a survey of specialized local and foreign analysts.

The survey is carried out on the last three business days of each month, and includes: expectations on retail prices, interest rates, nominal exchange rates, level of economic activity, primary balance of the national non-financial public sector, unemployment rate, FOB exports and CIF imports.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2026

This report, published on October 6, 2026, discloses the results of the survey conducted from September 28 to September 30, 2026. It includes estimates from 44 analysts, 33 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 11 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the ninth survey of 2026, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 1.9% for September (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) also predicted a monthly inflation rate of 1.9% for September (+0.1 p.p. against the previous survey). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants estimated 1.8% for September (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts expected a monthly core inflation rate of 1.7% for September (unchanged against the previous REM).

In September’s survey, REM analysts estimated that, in seasonally-adjusted (s.a.) terms, GDP would have contracted 1.0% in the third quarter of 2026 (-2.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey), and that it would improve 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.5 p.p. against the previous REM). Subsequently, REM analysts forecast 0.7% s.a. growth for the first quarter of 2027. For 2026, REM analysts forecast an average increase of 1.5% in real GDP, compared to the average for 2025 (-0.6 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts forecast a rise of 1.2% in GDP for 2026 (-1.0 p.p. against the previous REM).

The estimate for the unemployment rate in the economically active population was 7.5% for the third quarter of 2026 (+0.2 p.p. against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 7.7% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.2 p.p. against the previous REM). As for top-10 analysts, they forecast rates of 7.6% and 7.9% for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast that the TAMAR rate at private banks would be 23.56% APR (-0.2 p.p. against the previous REM) in October. This translates into an effective monthly rate of 1.94%. REM analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 23.50% APR (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM) in December 2026, representing a 1.93% EMR. Top-10 analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 23.29% APR and 23.35% APR in October and December 2026, respectively.

The median forecasts predict that the nominal exchange rate for October 2026 would average ARS1,545/USD (-ARS20.0/USD against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,614/USD in December 2026, i.e., an expected 11.5% y.o.y. change vis-à-vis December 2025. In turn, top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,602/USD for December.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD101,200 million (USD305 million more than in the previous REM), and CIF imports would amount to USD75,499 million (USD362 million less than in the previous REM) in 2026. The expected annual trade surplus would total USD25,701 million (up USD667 million against the previous REM).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS15.0 trillion for 2026 (-ARS400 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS14.8 trillion for 2026. None of the analysts expected a primary surplus below ARS9.0 trillion for 2026.

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Retail prices

Monthly change of the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the level of retail prices of a set of goods and services that represent household consumption in a given period.

Activity

Quarterly change of gross domestic product (GDP) in constant currency, which measures the value of final goods and services produced in a year.

Imports

Monthly value of foreign purchases of goods in millions of current dollars—Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF), i.e., including insurance and freight costs.

Interest rate

Monthly value of the average interest rate weighted by amount, calculated on the basis of time deposits of ARS1 billion or more with a 30 to 35-day term (TAMAR rate).

SPNF

Yearly cash-based value of the primary balance of the national non-financial public sector (SPNF), which measures the difference between revenues and primary expenditures.