Market Expectations Survey (REM)

This report, published on May 7, 2026, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between April 28 and 30, 2026, involving 45 participants, including 33 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the fourth survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.6% for April (unchanged from the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) reported inflation of 2.7% per month for April (the same as the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for April at 2.6% (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 2.7% per month for the fourth month of the year (ditto REM above).

In the April survey, the REM analysts estimated that seasonally adjusted output would have expanded 0.3% in the quarter. I-26 and would increase 1.0% in Trim. II-26 (-1.0 p.p. and +0.2 p.p. compared to the previous survey, respectively). For the Trim. III-26 The growth projection s.e. of the REM analysts as a whole was 0.9%. By 2026, REM participants expect an average real GDP level 2.8% higher than the 2025 average (-0.5 p.p. compared to the previous survey). Those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 2.5% for the year 2026 (-0.7 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2026 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.7% of the Economically Active Population (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey). For its part, the Top 10 estimated rates of 7.8% and 7.3% for the first and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for May of 23.1% TNA (-2.9 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 1.9%. By December 2026, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 22.0% nominal annual (-1.4 p.p. in relation to the previous REM), equivalent to a TEM of 1.8%. The Top 10 forecast that the TAMAR rate will stand at 23.2% TNA and 23.5% TNA, by May and December 2026, respectively.

The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,410 per dollar for the May 2026 average (-$39/USD compared to the previous REM). For December 2026, the group of participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,676/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 15.8%. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for December would be $1,611/USD.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2026 exports (FOB) will total USD96,056 million (+USD2,821 million than in the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD79,550 million (+USD429 million than in the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus would be USD16,506 million (USD2,392 million more than in the previous REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $15.9 trillion for 2026 (-100 billion compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecast a primary surplus of $16.5 trillion. No participant expected a primary surplus of less than $9.0 trillion for this year.