Market Expectations Survey (REM)

We publish the results of the (period) survey with the main macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of selected variables

Executive summary

This report, published on August 6, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between July 29 and 31, 2025, involving 41 participants, including 31 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 10 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the seventh survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 1.8% for July (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) reported inflation of 1.8% monthly for July (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for July at 1.8% (ditto to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 1.9% monthly for July (unchanged from the previous REM). For the following months, a generalized drop in inflation projections is projected, with the monthly figures always remaining below 2.0%.

In the July survey, the REM analysts estimated that the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP between April and June would have grown 0.8% compared to the first quarter of 2025 (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and project that it will slow down to a growth rate of 0.5% in the Quarter. III-25 and then expanded 0.6% in the Quarter. IV-25. By 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 5.0% higher than the average for 2024 (ditto to the previous REM). Those who make up the Top 10 also projected, on average, a growth of 5.0% in the year (ditto REM above).

The open unemployment rate for the second quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.6% of the Economically Active Population (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 7.0% in the last quarter of 2025 (ditto to the previous REM), while, for the Top 10, the unemployment rate would stand at 6.9% (+0.4 p.p.).

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for August of 34.85% TNA, equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.9%. By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 29.5% nominal per annum (TEM of 2.5%).

The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,315 per dollar for the average of August 2025. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for August is $1,304/USD. For December 2025, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,405/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 37.6% (+7.9 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those participating in the REM projected that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD81,662 million (USD82 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD75,115 million (USD293 million less than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD6,507 million (USD374 million more than the last REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $13.6 billion for 2025 ($0.1 trillion higher than the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $14.3 trillion. No participant expects a primary surplus of less than $9.5 trillion for this year.