During the presentation, he reviewed the main guidelines of the Monetary Policy Report and the results of the 2025 Financial Statements.
Below is the full video of the conference, the presentation and the opening remarks of the President of the BCRA.
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Opening remarks from the president
I. International context
The most salient element of the external context in the period analyzed is the conflict in the Middle East, which represents the most significant geopolitical shock for the global economy so far this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to energy infrastructure generated an impact of historic magnitude on the commodity markets: the price of Brent oil exceeded USD 118 per barrel, and the prices of soybeans, wheat and corn also registered significant increases. The conflict also reignited global inflationary pressures, tightened interest rates in developed markets and generated volatility in the dollar.
In this environment, liquidity conditions for emerging market markets showed an initial contraction, although risk aversion was transitory: towards the end of April, stock markets recovered ground and sovereign spreads in the region resumed a declining trend. The main risk we identified going forward is the prolongation of the conflict, to which are added other latent threats such as new trade restrictions, and risks of abrupt corrections in the markets.
II. Local macroeconomic context
In the face of this adverse external context, Argentina showed a differential behavior that deserves to be highlighted. Unlike similar episodes in the past, the country was not infected by global financial stress: the exchange rate remained stable, domestic interest rates fell, and the energy trade surplus acted as a buffer. This response reflects the solid macroeconomic fundamentals built over the past two years.
Economic activity
2025 closed with an average growth of 4.4%, in line with what the BCRA had projected in the previous IPOM. The recovery in the fourth quarter was mainly driven by the record wheat harvest, while the rest of the sectors showed a heterogeneous evolution. In the first quarter of 2026, a slowdown was observed, largely explained by the reversal of this transitory effect on wheat, and not by a deterioration in background trends. The industry and construction indicators for March point to a recovery that would take the quarterly average to levels similar to those of the fourth quarter of 2025.
As is known, growth was not uniform across sectors. Agriculture, mining, oil and gas extraction, and financial intermediation continue to be the most dynamic sectors, while industry, commerce, and construction registered year-on-year declines, partly explained by the electoral uncertainty of 2025. It is expected that, once this source of volatility is cleared, these sectors will improve their performance in the coming months, in line with the levels announced last March.
Employment and poverty
In terms of employment, the unemployment rate stood at 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a historically low level, although slightly higher than in 2024. The fall in employment was concentrated in the formal segment, while informal employment continued to grow. In this framework, the Labor Modernization Law aims to reverse the trend of more than a decade, and boost the formal market.
A particularly important development is poverty reduction. Poverty and indigence rates registered significant falls in the second half of 2025, compared to their 2024 highs. The BCRA estimates that the reduction in inflation directly explained almost 6 percentage points of this fall, illustrating the concrete link between monetary stability and social welfare.
Demand and investment
On the demand side, growth was driven by private consumption and exports. Investment, which contracted for much of 2025 in a context of electoral uncertainty, began to show signs of recovery at the beginning of 2026. This is consistent with the progress of RIGI – with more than USD 124 billion in projects presented – and with the recent announcement of “Super RIGI”, as well as with the privatizations and concessions underway.
External sector and reserves
Exports of goods remained at historically high levels, with prospects of a trade surplus of more than USD 16,000 million by 2026, driven by the harvest and by commodity prices. Gross international reserves showed an increase of more than USD 17,000 million year-on-year, reaching USD 42 billion as of March 31. During the quarter, two trade agreements of strategic relevance were also signed: the MERCOSUR-European Union Agreement and the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment with the United States, which together link Argentina with markets that represent 43% of global GDP.
Public accounts and treasury finances
In the public accounts, the national public sector recorded a primary surplus equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, thus sustaining fiscal balance as a pillar of the economic program. It is noteworthy that this result is achieved in a context of reduction of the tax burden to the lowest level since 2006, placing it at around 20% of GDP. The Treasury maintained refinancing rates above 100% of its maturities in pesos, extended placement terms and achieved decreasing cut-off rates. Public debt with private and external creditors stood at around 36% of GDP, below the 2025 average.
The consensus of REM analysts projects growth of 2.8% for 2026, with sustained expansion of around 3% in the following years, a projection shared by the IMF and the World Bank.
III. Prices
In terms of inflation, the corresponding chapter of the IPOM analyzes the recent dynamics of the CPI and its prospects in light of the international price shock. The increase in fuel prices had a direct impact on some components of the index, and the BCRA is focusing, and monitoring with particular attention, the potential second-round effects that may be incorporated into the inflationary dynamics. Our nominal anchor is the control of monetary aggregates, and this scheme has been consistent with the sustained disinflation that we have been registering.
More in detail, the CPI was affected during the quarter by three well-identified factors:
- – the rise in the international price of meat and the adjustment of electricity and gas tariffs, which are part of the correction of relative prices typical of a stabilization and economic reintegration program;
– expected seasonal factors – education, clothing – that temporarily raised monthly inflation;
– and, more recently, the transfer of the shock from the international price of oil to domestic fuels. The extent of the latter factor is the main source of uncertainty about the CPI’s forward trajectory.
What the report clearly shows is that core inflation does not show second-round effects: despite the transitory rise in the CPI, the BCRA’s Core CPI remained relatively stable.
This is explained by the fact that the economy lacks inertial inflationary pressures: the fiscal and monetary anchor does not validate the transfer of shocks on some prices to others.
As a result, inflation resumes its downward trend once seasonal factors and the direct impact of fuels are reversed. The REM confirms this diagnosis: the private sector considers the shocks to be temporary, anticipates a reduction in inflation in the immediate term, and maintains its 12-month expectations anchored at around 24%.
IV. Monetary policy
The third chapter of the IPOM reviews the monetary policy decisions adopted during the quarter and explains their rationale. The BCRA maintains the regime of control of monetary aggregates as the axis of the stabilization strategy.
In this context, we believe that the conditions are in place for the supply of money to continue to accompany the recovery of real demand, prioritizing the reserve purchase channel to supply that demand. The result is that the accumulation of international reserves and exchange rate stability reinforce each other, while monetary financing to the Treasury remains at zero.
The purchase of foreign currency from the private sector during the first four months of the year exceeded the expectations of the base scenario of the monetary program. This result reflects a combination of factors:
- – the freedom for families to save in dollars in a context of electoral uncertainty,
– the decision of the private sector to keep a large part of these savings deposited in the domestic financial system,
– greater flexibility in the commercial and financial operations of companies,
– and the resumption of the investment cycle with the entry of external financing.
The expansion of liquidity resulting from these purchases was absorbed through open market tools, and through the normalization of bank reserve requirements. All this, while keeping the same monetary policy in force.
The BCRA considered that the transitory rise in inflation, anchored inflationary expectations and stable financial conditions did not justify changing course.
The behavior of the exchange rate and domestic interest rates in the face of the external geopolitical shock was remarkable: instead of the contagion that characterized previous episodes, the economy exhibited stability and even some nominal appreciation. That’s evidence of the degree of credibility the program has gained.
V. Financial Statements 2025
Finally, I would like to make a brief mention of the Financial Statements for the 2025 financial year. The BCRA closed the year with a profit of $34.3 billion – 34% higher than in 2024 in constant currency – the highest result in real terms in the last 20 years with the exception of the specific year of 2019, in which accounting standards were altered. Net Worth reached $51.3 billion, increasing by 66% in the year. International Reserves in dollars grew 48.5% and remunerated liabilities were eliminated.
The improvement in the result is mainly explained by three factors:
- – a higher result due to price differences, driven by the buyback of Non-Transferable Bills and the rise in the price of gold,
– a sharp reduction in the interest paid by the elimination of interest-bearing liabilities,
– and lower monetary issuance expenses.
Regarding the destination of the results: the Board of Directors constituted reserves of $11.4 billion and made available to the National Treasury $24.4 billion in dividends. The Treasury will use these funds to repurchase Non-Transferable Bills in the BCRA’s portfolio for approximately $18 billion – equivalent to USD 21 billion – and to constitute deposits in the BCRA for $6 billion. Both operations contribute directly to the clean-up of the BCRA’s balance sheet.
In 2026, the BCRA will continue to consolidate this process. The international reserve purchase program has already accumulated purchases for USD 8,200 million so far this year.
The clean-up of the BCRA’s balance sheet is not an end in itself: it is a necessary condition for this institution to have the effective tools that allow it to fulfill its monetary and financial stability mandate.
A healthy BCRA balance sheet backs its liabilities with solidity and credibility. In essence, the balance sheet supports its main liability, which is none other than our currency, the peso. The more the peso is worth, the lower the inflation.
