The objective of seasonal adjustment is to quantify and remove the systematic fluctuations that occur within the year, associated with climatic factors, sociocultural issues and/or working days; which make it difficult to correctly interpret short- and long-term movements. These regular movements year after year give rise to the seasonal pattern of the series of interest, and have the particularity of being predictable with a high degree of confidence.
The BCRA has a long history in the seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates. The following technical note summarizes the main qualities of the seasonal adjustment of the monetary base, the monthly contribution due to seasonality to the nominal changes of the monetary base and the seasonal factors projected for the end of 2018 and 2019.
