Monetary Policy Report (IPOM)

This publication analyzes the economic context, assesses inflation dynamics and its outlook, and explains the rationale for monetary policy decisions.

Institutional Outlook

Since the launch of Stage 4 of the economic stabilization program and with the aim of enhancing transparency and communication of the monetary scheme, the BCRA resumes the publication of its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (IPOM). The publication begins with the volume corresponding to the last quarter of 2025, and adopts the standard communication practices followed by leading central banks.

Through the IPOM, the BCRA shares its diagnosis of the national and international macroeconomic situation, presents its assessment of the future prospects, and systematically explains the monetary policy decisions adopted in order to meet its price stability objective. The report is structured into chapters dedicated to the macroeconomic context, price developments and the actions of monetary policy, complemented by thematic boxes and technical sections that deepen the quantitative analysis of specific topics. This approach facilitates a better understanding of the relationship between monetary policy, private sector expectation formation, and overall macroeconomic balance.

Unlike other stabilization experiences, the current program made it possible to make sustained progress in correcting the main inherited macroeconomic imbalances, complying with pre-existing contracts. The establishment of fiscal balance, the elimination of monetary financing to the Treasury, the correction of distortions in relative prices and the consolidation of the Central Bank’s balance sheet contributed to reducing inflation and allowed the exchange market to be freed. The consistency of the fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies adopted allowed the economy to converge to its short-term equilibrium, while the prospect of structural reforms reinforces expectations regarding its long-term sustainability. In this regard, the BCRA will continue to make progress on the regulations that facilitate the efficient and prudent development of the currency competition regime.

The BCRA has adopted a monetary aggregates control regime as an anchor of the nominal evolution of the economy. This decision is aligned with similar successful stabilization experiences for developing economies. It also takes into account the specific features of an economy undergoing a post‑crisis transition and marked by a high degree of dollarization, in which the transmission mechanisms of interest rates, the exchange rate, and the amount of money differ from those observed in steady‑state economies. Within this framework, monetary policy will aim to ensure that money supply closely accompanies the recovery of real money demand.

The BCRA considers that conditions are in place to prioritize meeting the money demand through the purchase of foreign currency during 2026, thereby supporting the objective of building up international reserves. This diagnosis indicates a marked decline in the potential conflicts and trade-offs among economic objectives, representing a clear contrast with the adverse conditions that characterized the 2024–2025 period. Nevertheless, in an environment where global and domestic conditions evolve continuously, the multiplicity of economic policy objectives continues to pose challenges for monetary policy management. In accordance with the mandate established in its Charter, the Board of the BCRA remains committed to safeguarding price stability, using all the monetary policy tools available.