Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Monthly monitoring of the main macroeconomic forecasts on inflation, activity, exchange rate, rates and external indicators.

Executive summary

This report, published on October 6, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between September 26 and 30, 2025, involving 42 participants, including 30 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the ninth survey of the year, those who participated in the REM estimated monthly inflation of 2.1% for September (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) also reported inflation of 2.1% monthly for September (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for September at 2.0% (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 2.0% monthly for September (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the last months of 2025, headline inflation is projected at around 2.0% per month, while it would return to below 2.0% per month as of January 2026.

In the September survey, the REM analysts estimated that in the third quarter of the year seasonally adjusted GDP would have fallen 0.6% compared to the second quarter of 2025 (0.3 p.p. of greater fall compared to the previous REM) and they project that it will grow 0.5% in the Quarter. IV-25 (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and that it accelerates to 0.8% in the Quarter. I-26. By 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 3.9% higher than the average for 2024 (-0.5 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 3.9% in the year (-0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

La tasa de desocupación abierta para el tercer trimestre de 2025 fue estimada por quienes participan del REM en 7,5% de la Población Económicamente Activa (+0,1 p.p. respecto del REM previo). El conjunto de participantes del REM espera una tasa de 7,2% en el último trimestre de 2025 (+0,2 p.p. vs. el REM anterior), en tanto, para el Top 10, la tasa de desempleo se ubicaría en 6,9% (+0,3 p.p.).

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for October of 43.0% TNA (-8.7 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 3.5%. By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 36.3% nominal annual (TEM of 3.0%).

The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,440 per dollar for the average of October 2025. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for October is $1,471/USD. For December 2025, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,536/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 50.5% (+9.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD83,548 million (USD1,263 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD75,300 million (USD120 million more than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD8,248 million (USD1,143 million more than the previous REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $13.4 billion for 2025 (the same as the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $14.4 trillion. No participant expects a primary surplus of less than $10 trillion for this year.