Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Report of the main macroeconomic forecasts according to the monthly survey.

This report, published on December 5, 2024, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between November 27 and 29, 2024. Forecasts from 42 participants were considered, including 29 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 13 financial institutions from Argentina.
In the eleventh survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.8% for November (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For December, they projected monthly inflation of 2.9% and for the year of 118.8% y.o.y. (-1.2 p.p. in relation to the previous survey). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top 10) expected inflation of 2.8% for November, 2.9% for December and 118.9% y.o.y. for 2024 (-1.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for November and December at 2.7%, and 104.3% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.8 p.p. compared to the previous survey). The Top 10 expected core inflation of 2.7% for November and 104.8% YoY for 2024 (-0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

In the November survey, the REM analysts projected for 2024 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 3.0% lower than the average for 2023 (0.6 p.p. less fall compared to the previous REM). Meanwhile, those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a reduction of 3.2% in the year. The fall would have been concentrated in the first half of the year since, according to the estimates received, the level of activity began to recover in the third quarter of the year with an increase of 3.4% s.e. compared to the previous quarter. By 2025, the REM participants as a whole estimated an average growth
of 4.2% YoY (+0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the third quarter of the year was estimated at 7.8% of the Economically Active Population (EAP), remaining the same as the previous REM. For the Top 10, the unemployment rate would stand at 7.6% in the same period. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 8.0% for the last quarter of 2024.

REM participants forecast a BADLAR rate of private banks for December of 35.84% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.9%). Those who make up the Top 10 predicted that it would stand at 36.65% in December.

The median of the REM’s nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,021 per dollar for the average of December 2024, which would imply an average monthly increase of 2.0% in the exchange parity. For the Top 10, the average nominal exchange rate expected for December is $1,043/USD.

For December 2025, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,250/USD. The implied year-on-year variation stood at 59.1% as of Dec-24 and 22.3% in Dec-25.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those participating in the REM estimated that by 2024 exports (FOB) will total USD78,740 million (USD876 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD60,847 million (USD840 million more than the previous survey). The expected annual trade surplus increased by USD36 million.

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM stood at $9.0 trillion for 2024 ($37 billion higher than the previous REM). The average of the Top 10 forecasts a surplus.