Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Report of the main macroeconomic forecasts according to the monthly survey.

Executive summary

This report, published on April 7, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between March 27 and 31, 2025. Forecasts from 39 participants were considered, including 27 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions from Argentina.

In the third survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.6% for March (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top 10) expected inflation of 2.5% per month for March (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for March at 2.6% (+0.5 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 expected core inflation of 2.5% monthly for March (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the following months, downward paths of monthly inflation are expected for both the NG CPI and the core component.

In the March survey, the REM analysts estimated that seasonally adjusted GDP between January and March grew 1.5% quarterly compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and that it will do so at a rate of 0.6% and 0.8% in the next two quarters of 2025. For all of 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 5.0% higher than the average for 2024 (0.2 p.p. more increase compared to the previous REM). Meanwhile, those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 5.5% in the year (+0.7 p.p. than the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of the year was estimated at 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (-0.3 p.p. than the previous REM). For the Top 10, the unemployment rate would stand at 7.1%, -0.2 p.p. lower than the previous REM. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 6.5% for the last quarter of 2025 (-0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Those who participate in the REM forecast a TAMAR of private banks for April of 30.2% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.5%). By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 24.1% nominal annual (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.0%).

The median of the REM’s nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,080 per dollar for the average of April 2025, which would imply an average monthly increase of 1.0% in the exchange parity. According to the REM participants as a whole, this rate of exchange rate depreciation would be sustained throughout the surveyed monthly horizon. For the Top 10, the average nominal exchange rate expected for April is $1,097/USD. For December 2025, all participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,253/USD. The expected year-on-year variation stood at 22.8% as of Dec-25 (+7.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM estimated that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD 83,269 million (USD 608 million less than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD 72,934 million (USD 1,202 million more than the previous survey). The expected annual trade surplus is USD10,335 million.

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM stood at $12.0 billion for 2025 ($0.5 billion lower than the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $13.0 trillion by 2025. No participant expects a primary deficit by 2025.