Market Expectations Survey (REM)

We publish the results of the (period) survey with the main macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of selected variables

This report, published on April 8, 2024, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between March 25 and 27, 2024. Forecasts from 37 participants were considered, including 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 13
financial institutions from Argentina.

In the third survey of the year, those who participated in the REM estimated a monthly inflation of 12.5% for March (-1.8 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For April, they estimated monthly inflation of 10.8% and for the year of 189.4% y.o.y. (-1.3 p.p. and -20.8 p.p. in relation to the previous survey, respectively). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top-10) expected inflation of 12.4% for March, 11.1% for April and 203.8% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for 2024 at 179.0% YoY (-27.3 p.p. than the previous REM).

The REM analysts projected for 2024 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 3.5% lower than the average for 2023, unchanged from the previous month’s survey. Meanwhile, those who make up the Top-10 projected, on average, a reduction of 4.1% for activity in the year. The fall would have been concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which those who respond to the REM estimated a reduction of 3.8% s.e. of GDP (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). According to its forecasts, the level of activity would begin to recover in the third quarter of the year, with a rise of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter s.e. In turn, the forecasts implicitly show a strong increase projected for the fourth quarter of the year of approximately 4.1% s.e. For 2025, the REM participants as a whole estimated an average annual growth of 3.0% y.o.y.

The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of the year was projected at 7.1% of the Economically Active Population (EAP), implying a reduction of 0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM. For the Top-10, the unemployment rate would also stand at 7.1% in the same period. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 7.5% for the last quarter of 2024.

REM participants forecast a BADLAR rate of private banks, for April, of 71.9% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 5.9%) and a decrease to 60.0% TNA in December. Those who make up the Top-10 predicted, on average, that it would stand at 73.0% in April.

The median of REM analysts forecasts the nominal exchange rate at $876.3 per dollar for the average of April 2024 (-$51.5 per dollar compared to the previous REM). For the Top-10, the average nominal exchange rate expected for April is $885.3/USD. The year-on-year variation as of Dec-24 implied in the forecasts stood at 124.0%, 26.8 p.p. lower than the previous REM.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those participating in the REM estimated that by 2024 exports (FOB) will total USD80,842 million and imports (CIF) USD65,162 million, both correcting downwards compared to the previous survey (-USD771 million and -USD1,660 million, respectively).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) made by those who participate in the REM stood at $4,924 billion for 2024 ($4,138 billion higher than the previous REM). The Top-10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $4.152 billion by 2024.