Market Expectations Survey (REM)

We publish the results of the (period) survey with the main macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of selected variables.

Executive summary

This report, published on July 4, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between June 26 and 30, 2025, involving 41 participants, including 30 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 11 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the sixth survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 1.8% for June (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) reported inflation of 1.9% monthly for June (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for June at 1.9% (ditto to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 2.0% monthly for June (unchanged from the previous REM). For the following months there was a slight downward correction in the generalized inflation projections, with the monthly figures always remaining below 2.0%.

In the June survey, the REM analysts estimated that the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP between April and June would have grown 0.4% compared to the first quarter of 2025 (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and they project that it will accelerate to a growth rate of 0.7% in the Quarter. III-25 and then expanded 0.6% in the Quarter. IV-25. For 2025, they expect on average a level of real GDP 5.0% higher than the average for 2024 (0.2 p.p. less than the previous REM). Those who make up the Top 10 also projected, on average, a growth of 5.0% in the year (-0.1 p.p.).

The open unemployment rate for the second quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.4% of the Economically Active Population (+0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Meanwhile, for the Top 10, the unemployment rate would have stood at 7.1% (+0.2 p.p.). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 7.0% in the last quarter of 2025 (+0.5 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for July of 33.0% TNA, equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.7%. By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 28.0% nominal annual (TEM of 2.3%).

The median of the nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,207 per dollar for the average of July 2025. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for July is $1,201/USD. For December 2025, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,324/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 29.7% (+2.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD81,541 million (USD1,220 million less than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD75,408 million (USD408 million more than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD6,133 million (USD1,628 million less than the last REM).