Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Report of the main macroeconomic forecasts according to the monthly survey.

Executive summary

This report, published on February 6, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between January 29 and 31, 2025. Forecasts from 39 participants were considered, including 27 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions from Argentina.

In the first survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.3% for January (-0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top 10) expected inflation of 2.2% per month for January (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for January at 2.4% (invariant with respect to the previous REM). The Top 10 expected core inflation of 2.5% monthly for January (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the following months, downward paths of monthly inflation are expected for both the NG CPI and the core component.

In the January survey, the REM analysts projected consecutive quarterly increases of 1.0% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the first half of the year (invariant with respect to the previous REM). For all of 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 4.6% higher than the average for 2024 (0.1 p.p. more increase compared to the previous REM). Meanwhile, those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 4.7% in the year (+0.9 p.p. than the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of the year was estimated at 7.0% of the Economically Active Population, 0.2 p.p. lower than the previous REM. For the Top 10, the unemployment rate would stand at 7.0%, 0.1 p.p. lower than the previous REM. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 6.8% for the last quarter of 2025 (-0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for February of 30.6% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.5%). By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 24.0% nominal annual (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.0%).

The median of the REM’s nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,055 per dollar for the average of February 2025, which would imply an average monthly increase of 1.0% in the exchange parity. According to the REM participants as a whole, this rate of exchange rate depreciation would be sustained throughout the surveyed horizon. For the Top 10 the average nominal exchange rate expected for January is $1,056/USD. For December 2025, all participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,201/USD. The expected year-on-year variation stood at 17.6% as of Dec-25 (-0.5 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM estimated that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD 83,126 million (USD 308 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD 69,100 million (USD 1,651 million more than the previous survey). The expected annual trade surplus decreased by USD 1,343 million.

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM stood at $11.6 billion for 2025 ($0.5 billion higher than the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $11.9 trillion by 2025. None of the participants expect a primary deficit by 2025.