Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Report of the main macroeconomic forecasts according to the monthly survey.

This report, published on January 7, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between December 23 and 27, 2024. Forecasts from 42 participants were considered, including 29 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 13 financial institutions from Argentina.

In the last survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.7% for December (-0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM). They implicitly projected inflation of 117.8% y.o.y. for the year (-1.0 p.p. in relation to the previous survey). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top 10) expected inflation of 2.6% per month for December (-0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for December at 2.6% (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and implicitly at 104.3% y.o.y. for 2024 (same value as the previous survey). The Top 10 expected core inflation of 2.7% monthly for December (-0.1 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected inflation of 25.9% YoY for the general level (NG) and 24.8% YoY for the Core component, while the Top 10 forecast an annual variation of 22.4% and 23.1% for the CPI NG and Core, respectively. As for the longer-term projections, those who participated in the survey expect headline inflation to moderate in 2026 to 15.3% y.o.y. (-2.7 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and to 10.0% y.o.y. in 2027 (the first time it has been surveyed).

In the December survey, the REM analysts projected for 2024 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.6% lower than the average for 2023 (0.4 p.p. less fall than the previous REM), based on the growth forecast in the fourth quarter of 0.9% s.e. compared to the previous quarter (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). By 2025, the REM participants as a whole estimated an average growth of 4.5% YoY (+0.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Meanwhile, those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 3.8% in the year (-0.5 p.p. than the previous REM). Regarding the longer-term projections, those who participated in the REM expect the economy to grow by 3.7% annually in 2026 (+0.6 p.p. compared to the previous survey) and 3.0% annually in 2027 (the first time it has been surveyed).

The open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of the year was estimated at 7.2% of the Economically Active Population, 0.8 p.p. lower than the previous REM. For the Top 10, the unemployment rate would stand at 7.1% in the same period. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 7.0% for the last quarter of 2025 (-0.5 p.p. compared to the previous REM), while estimating that it will remain at that level by the end of 2026.

In the first survey that surveyed the Wholesale Rate (TAMAR) to replace the BADLAR¹ Rate, REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for January of 34.00% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.8%). By December 2025, the REM participants projected a TAMAR of 25.00% nominal per annum, forecasting a reduction to 16.87% by the end of 2026.

The median of the REM’s nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,042 per dollar for the average of January 2025, which would imply an average monthly increase of 2.1% in the exchange parity. For the Top 10, the average nominal exchange rate expected for January is $1,043/USD. For December 2025, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,205/USD. The expected year-on-year variation stood at 18.1% as of Dec-25 (-4.3 p.p. compared to the previous REM), consistent with an average monthly variation of 1.4%. For Dec-26, the survey participants as a whole expect a variation of 14.7% y.o.y. (average monthly variation of 1.1%).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM implicitly estimated that by 2024 exports (FOB) will total USD78,910 million (USD170 million more than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD60,593 million (USD255 million less than the previous survey). The expected annual trade surplus increased by USD424 million. Regarding 2025, exports were projected at USD82,818 million (USD233 million less than the previous REM) and imports at USD67,449 million (USD450 million less than the previous survey). By 2026, those who participated in the REM expect exports to increase to USD89,000 million, while imports would grow to USD73,060 million.

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM stood at $11.2 trillion for 2025 ($847 billion lower than the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $11.8 trillion by 2025. By 2026, REM participants project a primary surplus of $14.2 trillion. No one expects a primary deficit for 2025 or 2026.