Market Expectations Survey (REM)

We publish the results of the (period) survey with the main macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of selected variables.

Executive summary

This report, published on May 8, 2025, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between April 28 and 30, 2025. Forecasts from 41 participants were considered, including 29 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions from Argentina.

In the fourth survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 3.2% for April (+1.0 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best forecast this variable in the past (Top 10) expected inflation of 3.1% per month for April (+0.8 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their forecasts for April at 3.1% (+0.9 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 expected core inflation of 2.9% monthly for April (+0.7 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the following months, downward paths of monthly inflation are expected for both the general CPI and the core component.

In the April survey, the REM analysts estimated that seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP between January and March grew 1.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM) and that it will do so at a rate of 0.4% and 0.6% in the following two quarters of 2025. For all of 2025, they expect an average level of real GDP 5.1% higher than the average for 2024 (0.1 p.p. more increase compared to the previous REM). Meanwhile, those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a
growth of 5.4% in the year (-0.1 p.p. than in the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (ditto previous REM). For the Top 10, the unemployment rate would stand at 6.9%, 0.2 p.p. lower than the previous REM. The REM participants as a whole expect an unemployment rate of 6.5% for the last quarter of 2025 (the same as in the previous REM).

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for May of 34.1% TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.8%). By December 2025, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 27.0% nominal annual (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.2%).

The median of the REM’s nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,171 per dollar for the May 2025 average. For the Top 10 analysts, the average nominal exchange rate expected for May is $1,158/USD. For December 2025, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,322/USD. The expected year-on-year variation stood at 29.5% as of Dec-25 (+6.8 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM estimated that by 2025 exports (FOB) will total USD82,810 million (USD459 million less than the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD73,000 million (USD65 million more than the previous survey). The expected annual trade surplus is USD9,811 million.

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM stood at $13.0 billion for 2025 ($1.0 trillion higher than the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $14.1 trillion by 2025. No participant expects a primary deficit by 2025.