Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Executive Summary

This report, published on March 5, 2026, disseminates the results of the survey carried out between February 25 and 27, 2026, involving 46 participants, including 34 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions in Argentina.

In the second survey of the year, REM participants estimated monthly inflation of 2.7% for February (+0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Those who best projected this variable in the past (Top 10) also reported inflation of 2.7% per month for February (+0.5 p.p. compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants as a whole placed their estimates for February at 2.5% (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 estimated core inflation of 2.5% per month for the second month of the year (+0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM).

In the February survey, the REM analysts estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2025 seasonally adjusted GDP would have grown 0.8% compared to the third quarter (+0.6 p.p. compared to the previous REM). The group of participants projects that the Product would expand 1.0% in the Quarter. I-26 and 0.9% in Trim. II-26 (+0.1 p.p. and -0.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey, respectively). By 2026, REM participants expect an average real GDP level 3.4% higher than the 2025 average (+0.2 p.p. compared to the previous survey). Those who make up the Top 10 projected, on average, a growth of 3.0% for the year 2026 (+0.3 p.p. than the previous REM).

The open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 was estimated by those who participate in the REM at 6.7% of the Economically Active Population (unchanged from the previous REM). The REM participants as a whole expect a rate of 6.7% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey). For its part, the Top 10 estimates rates of 6.7% and 6.8% for the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast a TAMAR of private banks for March of 31.3% TNA (+1.2 p.p. compared to the previous REM), equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.6%. By December 2026, the REM participants as a whole projected a TAMAR of 24.0% nominal annual (+1.6 p.p. in relation to the previous REM), equivalent to a TEM of 2.0%. The Top 10 forecasts that the TAMAR rate will stand at 30.9% TNA and 24.2% TNA, by March and December 2026, respectively.

The median of nominal exchange rate projections stood at $1,429 per dollar for the March 2026 average (-$73/USD compared to the previous REM). For December 2026, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,707/USD, which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 17.9%. For the Top 10 analysts, the expected average nominal exchange rate for December is $1,716/USD.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM projected that by 2026 exports (FOB) will total USD92,737 million (+USD852 million compared to the previous survey) and imports (CIF) USD80,204 million (-USD506 million compared to the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is USD12,533 million (USD1,358 million more than in the previous REM).

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector made by those who participate in the REM was a surplus of $16.1 trillion for 2026 (+80 billion compared to the previous REM). The Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $15.9 trillion. No participant expects a primary surplus of less than $9.0 trillion for this year.