Market Expectations Survey (REM)

Executive Summary

The report, published on March 5, 2026, discloses the results of the survey conducted from February 25 to February 27, 2026. It includes estimates from 46 analysts, 34 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the second survey of 2026, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.7% for February (+0.6 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) also predicted a monthly inflation rate of 2.7% for February (+0.5 p.p. against the previous REM). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants estimated 2.5% for February (+0.4 p.p. against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts expected a monthly core inflation rate of 2.5% for February (+0.4 p.p. against the previous REM).

In February’s survey, REM analysts estimated that, in seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP would have grown 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025 vis-à-vis the third quarter (+0.6 p.p. against the previous REM). REM participants forecast that GDP would expand 1.0% in the first quarter of 2026, and 0.9% in the second quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. and -0.1 p.p. against the previous REM, respectively). For 2026, REM analysts forecast an increase of 3.4%, on average, in real GDP compared to the average for 2025 (+0.2 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts forecast a rise of 3.0%, on average, in GDP for 2026 (+0.3 p.p. against the previous REM).

The estimate for the unemployment rate in the economically active population was 6.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025 (unchanged against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 6.7% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (+0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). In turn, top-10 analysts forecast rates of 6.7% and 6.8% for the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026, respectively.

REM participants forecast that the TAMAR rate at private banks would be 31.3% APR (+1.2 p.p. against the previous REM) in March. This translates into an effective monthly rate of 2.6%. REM analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 24.0% APR (+1.6 p.p. against the previous REM) in December 2026, representing a 2.0% effective monthly rate. Top-10 analysts forecast that the TAMAR rate would be 30.9% APR and 24.2% APR in March and December 2026, respectively.

The median forecasts predict that the nominal exchange rate for March 2026 would average ARS1,429/USD (-ARS73/USD against the previous REM), while REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,707/USD in December 2026, i.e., an expected 17.9% y.o.y. change. In turn, top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,716/USD for the same month.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD92,737 million (USD852 million more than in the previous REM), and CIF imports would amount to USD80,204 million (USD506 million less than in the previous REM) in 2026. The expected annual trade surplus is USD12,533 million (up USD1,358 million against the previous REM).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS16.1 trillion for 2026 (+ARS80 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS15.9 trillion for 2026. None of the analysts expected a primary surplus below ARS9.0 trillion for 2026.