This report, published on January 11, 2024, disseminates the results1 of the survey carried out between December 27 and 29, 2023. Forecasts from 37 participants were considered, including 25 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial institutions from Argentina.
In the last survey of 2023, analysts estimated monthly inflation of 25.0% for January 2024 and inflation for the year of 213.0% y.o.y. (21.2 p.p. more than in the previous month).
Quienes mejor pronosticaron esa variable en el pasado (Top-10) esperaban en el relevamiento de fines de diciembre una inflación de 25,5% para enero y de 201,5% i.a. para 2024. Respecto del IPC Núcleo, y los participantes del REM ubicaron sus previsiones para 2024 en 243,4% i.a.
REM analysts projected for 2024 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.6% lower than the average for 2023, worsening the outlook by 0.2 p.p. compared to the previous survey. This deterioration was concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which participants reduced their forecast by 0.9 p.p. Meanwhile, the Top-10 projected, on average, a reduction of 2.7% in the year. For 2025, REM participants estimated growth of 2.3% YoY.
The open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was projected at 6.6% of the Economically Active Population (EAP, -0.4 p.p. compared to the previous REM). For the Top-10, the unemployment rate would have stood at 6.5% in the same period. For the first quarter of 2024, REM participants estimated an unemployment rate of 7.5% of the EAP.
For January, REM participants forecast a BADLAR rate of private banks of 108.30% TNA, equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 8.9%. Those who make up the Top-10 predicted, on average, that it would stand at 107.56% in the month of January.
REM analysts forecast the nominal exchange rate at $820.3 per dollar on average for January 2024. For the Top-10 the average nominal exchange rate expected for Jan-24 is $834.9/USD. The year-on-year variation as of Dec-24 implied in the forecasts amounted to 164.8%.
Regarding foreign trade in goods, those who participate in the REM estimated that by 2024 exports (FOB) will total USD 83,952 million and imports (CIF) USD 69,372 million.
Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) made by the participants of the REM stood at $ 666.4 billion for 2024, which contrasts with the deficit of $ 928.9 billion expected in the previous REM. The average expected by the Top-10 reached a deficit of $57 billion by 2024.
