AGENDA
EXTERNAL BALANCE: Amid global shocks, Argentina’s financial market stability stands out vs. EM peers
– Cyclical drivers: The reversal of last year’s domestic shock more than offsets the current global shock.
– Policy drivers: BCRA FX purchases, dismantling of FX controls and export tax cuts.
– Structural drivers: Fiscal balance, capital repatriation, energy surplus, dismissal of contingent debt claims.
– BOP outlook: NIR rose USD1.5 bn in Q1; IMF SLA anticipates USD3.5 bn (Q2) and USD8.0 bn (2026).
DOMESTIC BALANCE: Despite global shocks, the monetary stance precludes 2nd round impacts on CPI
– Inflation drivers: Relative price adjustments lifted CPI temporarily; private sector expects disinflation.
– Monetary policy management: Lower rates & rate volatility support a resumption of the credit cycle.
Presentation by the Deputy Governor of the BCRA to investors in Washington, DC (PDF)
