Seminario de Economía | Jerónimo Carballo ( University of Colorado)

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“Global Sourcing under Uncertainty”

Autor: Jerónimo Carballo

Abstract

I examine how firms’ global sourcing strategies affect their responses to economic crises such as the 2008-2009 recession. I model firms’ entry, exit and sourcing decisions (integrated production or outsourcing) under demand uncertainty. Uncertainty increases the option value of waiting, resulting in less integration as well as less entry and exit. Additionally, I show that trade decisions of integrated firms are less sensitive to uncertainty shocks. I test these predictions using detailed U.S. firm level exports during 2002-2011 and find that integration reduces the probability that a firm exits by as much as 8%, while moving from 25th percentile in the uncertainty distribution to the 75th increases this probability by 7%.

Jerónimo Carballo es Profesor en el Departamento de Economía en la University of Colorado Boulder.. Obtuvo su Ph.D. in Economics de la University of Maryland en College Park. Jerónimo se especializa en temas de comercio internacional con un especial énfasis en las decisiones de las firmas bajo incertidumbre.

7 de junio de 2017