Market Expectations Survey (REM), September 2024

This report, published on October 4, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from September 26 to September 30, 2024. It includes estimates from 42 analysts, 28 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 14 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the ninth survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 3.5% for September (remaining unchanged against the previous survey). For October, they estimated a monthly inflation rate of 3.4%, and 123.6% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.1 p.p. and +0.8 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 3.6% for September, 3.3% for October, and 122.8% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.8 p.p. against the previous survey). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecast 3.4% for September and 3.1% for October. Top-10 analysts expected a core inflation rate of 3.3% for September, 3.1% for October, and 109% y.o.y. for 2024 (+3.2 p.p. against the previous survey).

In September's survey, REM analysts estimated a decrease of 3.8% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, exhibiting no changes vis-à-vis the forecast of the previous survey. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecast an average drop of 3.9% in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first half of the year. According to the forecasts received, the activity level will start to recover in the third quarter of 2024, going up 1.6% s.a. REM analysts forecast an average growth rate of 3.5% y.o.y. for 2025.

The forecast estimated an open unemployment rate of 7.8% in the economically active population (down 0.1 p.p. against the previous survey) in the third quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecast that such rate would be 7.7% in the same period (the same figure as in the previous REM). REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 8% for the last quarter of 2024.

They forecast that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 39.7% APR (3.2% effective monthly rate) in October, slightly decreasing to reach 39% APR in December; while top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 39.5% for October.

The median of REM forecasts predicted that the average nominal exchange rate for October would stand at ARS981.6/USD1, resulting in an exchange rate monthly increase of 2.1% on average. Top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS983.2/USD1 for October. REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,021.5/USD1 for December. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 59.1%, down 0.6 p.p. against the previous REM.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD77,610 million (USD247 million less than in the previous survey), and CIF imports would amount to USD58,651 million (USD512 million less than in the previous survey) for 2024. The resulting annual trade surplus would expand by USD265 million.

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS8,690 billion for 2024 (+ARS861 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS7,879 billion for 2024. None of the analysts expect primary deficit for 2024 or 2025.

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October 4, 2024