Market Expectations Survey (REM) , octubre de 2024
This report, published on November 7, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from October 27 to October 31, 2024. It includes estimates from 43 analysts, 29 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 14 are financial institutions from Argentina.
In the tenth survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 3.0% for October (-0.4 p.p. against the previous REM). For November, they estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.9%, and 120.0% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.4 p.p. and -3.6 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 3.0% for October, 2.9% for November, and 120.2% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecast 2.9% for October and 2.8% for November. Top-10 analysts forecast a core inflation of 3.0% for October and 2.9 y.o.y. for November.
In October's survey, REM analysts estimated a decrease of 3.6% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023 (+0.2 p.p. against the previous survey). Moreover, top-10 analysts forecast a drop of 3.7%, on average, in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first half of the year. According to the forecasts received, the activity level started to recover in the third quarter of 2024, going up 2.0% s.a. against the previous quarter. REM analysts forecast an average growth rate of 3.6% y.o.y. for 2025.
The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.8% in the economically active population (unchanged against the previous survey) in the third quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecast that the rate would be 7.7% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 8.0% for the last quarter of 2024.
They forecast that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 40.0% APR (3.29% effective monthly rate) in November. It should be noted that the survey was conducted before the BCRA decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 40% to 35% APR at the beginning of November. Top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 40.1% for November.
The median of REM forecasts predicted that the average nominal exchange rate for November would stand at ARS1,001/USD1, resulting in an exchange rate monthly increase of 2.0% on average. Top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,004/USD1 for November. REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,021/USD1 for December. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 59.0%.
Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD77,864 million (USD254 million more than in the previous survey), and CIF imports would amount to USD60,007 million (USD1,356 million more than in the previous survey) for 2024. The resulting annual trade surplus decreased by USD1,102 million.
Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS9,014 billion for 2024 (up ARS324 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS9,327 billion for 2024. None of the analysts expect primary deficit for 2024 or 2025.
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November 7, 2024
