Market Expectations Survey (REM), April 2024
The Market Expectations Survey (Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado, REM), published on May 7, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from April 26 to April 30, 2024. It includes estimates from 39 analysts, 26 of which are local and international consultants and research centers, and the other 13 are financial institutions from Argentina.
In the fourth survey of 2024, the monthly inflation rate for April was estimated at 9% (-1.8 p.p. against the previous REM), for May, 7.5%, and 161.3% y.o.y. for 2024 (-1.5 p.p. and -28 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 8.9% for April, 7.1% for May, and 156.5% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecast 145.1% y.o.y. for 2024 (-33.9 p.p. against the previous REM).
April's survey estimated a decrease of 3.5% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, the forecast compared to the previous survey remaining the same. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecast a drop of 3.7%, on average, in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which analysts estimated a seasonally-adjusted reduction of 3.4% of GDP. According to the forecasts, the activity level will cease to contract from the second quarter of 2024 and will start to recover in the third one, estimating a 0.6% s.a. quarterly rise. REM analysts forecast an average growth rate of 3.4% y.o.y. for 2025.
The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7% in the economically active population (-0.1 p.p. against the previous survey) in the first quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecast that the rate would be 7.1% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 7.6% for the last quarter of 2024.
They forecast that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 50.5% APR (4.2% effective monthly rate) in May, decreasing to 40% by December, while top-10 analysts estimated for May a rate of 49.9% on average.
The median of REM forecasts predicted that the nominal exchange rate for May 2024 would average ARS886.6/USD1 (-ARS43.4/USD1 against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS888.1/USD1. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 102.5%, down 21.5 p.p. against the previous REM.
Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports for 2024 would reach USD78,966 million and CIF imports would amount to
USD62,897 million, forecasting a decrease against the previous REM (-USD1.876 million and -USD2,265 million, respectively).
Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS4,420 billion for 2024 (-ARS504 billion against the previous REM). The top-10 analysts predicted an average primary surplus of ARS3,485 billion for 2024.
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May 7, 2024
