Market Expectations Survey (REM), february 2024
This report, published on March 6, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from February 27 to February 29, 2024. It includes estimates from 36 participants, 24 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.
In the second survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 15.8% for February (-2.2 p.p. against the previous REM). For March, they estimated a monthly inflation of 14.3% and a rate of 210.2% y.o.y. for 2024 (-1.1 p.p. and -16.9 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecasted this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 15.5% for February, 14% for March, and 212.7% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecasted 206.3% y.o.y. for 2024.
February's survey estimated a decrease of 3.5% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, outlining a worse scenario (-0.5 p.p.) compared to the previous survey. This fall is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which analysts reduced their estimations by 0.4 p.p. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecasted a drop of 3.3%, on average, in GDP for 2024. REM analysts forecasted an average growth rate of 3.2% y.o.y. for 2025.
The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.7% in the economically active population (unchanged against the previous survey) in the first quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecasted that the rate would be 7.2% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 7.8% for the last quarter of 2024.
They forecasted that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 109.08% APR (9% effective monthly rate) in March, while top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 107.7% for the same month, on average.
The median of REM analysts predicted that the nominal exchange rate for March 2024 would average ARS860/USD1 (-ARS49/USD1 against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts forecasted a nominal exchange rate of ARS864.1/USD1. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 150.9%, -14 p.p. against the previous REM.
Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports for 2024 would reach USD81,613 million and CIF imports would amount to USD66,822 million, forecasting a decrease against the previous REM (-USD1,262 million and -USD90 million, respectively).
Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS786 billion for 2024 (-ARS95.1 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS2,025.4 billion for 2024.
To access previous editions, click here March 6, 2024
