Market Expectations Survey (REM), May 2024

This report, published on June 6, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from May 27 to May 31, 2024. It includes estimates from 36 analysts, 23 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 13 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the fifth survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 5.2% for May (-2.3 p.p. against the previous REM). For June, they estimated 5.5%, and 146.4% y.o.y. for 2024 (-1.3 p.p. and -15 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecast 5% for May and 4.8% for June. Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 5.3% for May, 5.5% for June, and 143.5% y.o.y. for 2024.

May's survey estimated a decrease of 3.8% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, affecting expectations by 0.3 p.p. compared to the previous survey. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecast a drop of 3.9%, on average, in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which analysts estimated a seasonally-adjusted reduction of 3% of GDP. According to the forecasts received, the activity level will start to recover in the third quarter of 2024, up 0.5% s.a. REM analysts forecast an average growth rate of 3.4% y.o.y. for 2025.

The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.4% in the economically active population (up 0.4 p.p. against the previous survey) in the first quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecast that the rate would be 7.2% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 7.5% for the last quarter of 2024.

They forecast that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 32% APR (2.6% effective monthly rate) in June, decreasing to 30% APR by December; while top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 31.3% on average for June.

The median of REM forecasts predicted that the nominal exchange rate for June 2024 would average ARS904.3/USD1, resulting in an exchange rate monthly increase of 2% on average. Top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS906.4/USD1. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 83%, -19.5p.p. against the previous REM.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports for 2024 would reach USD77,904 million and CIF imports would amount to USD61,517 million, forecasting a decrease against the previous REM (-USD1,062 million and -USD1,380 million, respectively). Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS4,447 billion for 2024 (+ARS27 billion against the previous REM). The top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS3,710 billion for 2024.

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June 6, 2024