Market Expectations Survey (REM), January 2024

This report, published on February 6, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from January 29 to January 31, 2024. It includes estimates from 37 analysts, 24 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 13 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the first survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 21.9% for January (-3.1 p.p. against the previous REM). For February, they estimated a monthly inflation of 18%, and for 2024, a rate of 227% y.o.y. (-0.2 p.p. and +14 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecasted this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 21.3% for January 2024, 16.5% for February, and 207.4% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecasted 231.8% y.o.y. for 2024.

January's survey estimated a decrease of 3% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, outlining a worse scenario (-0.4 p.p.) compared to the previous survey. This fall is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which analysts reduced their estimations by 0.4 p.p. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecasted a drop of 2.8%, on average, in GDP for 2024. REM analysts forecasted an average growth rate of 2.8% y.o.y. for 2025.

The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.7% in the economically active population (+0.2 p.p. against the previous survey) in the first quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecasted that the rate would be 7% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 7.8% for the last quarter of 2024.

They also forecasted that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 109% APR (9% effective monthly rate) in February, while top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 108.13% for the same month, on average.

REM analysts predicted that the nominal exchange rate for February 2024 would average ARS839.7/USD1 (-ARS30.4/USD1 against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts forecasted a nominal exchange rate of ARS849.3/USD1. The year-on-year change rate for December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 164.9%, +0.1 p.p. against the previous REM.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD82,875 million and CIF imports would amount to USD66,912 million, forecasting a decrease in both against the previous REM (-USD1,077 million and -USD2,461 million, respectively).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS881.1 billion for 2024 (+ARS214.7 billion against the previous survey). The top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS3,723.3 billion for 2024.

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February 6, 2024

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