Market Expectations Survey (REM), December 2023

This report, published on January 11, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from December 27 to December 29, 2023. It includes estimates from 37 participants, 25 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 12 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the last survey of the year, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 25% for January 2024 and 213% y.o.y. for 2024. (up 21.2 p.p. against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecasted this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 25.5% for January 2024, and of 201.5% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecasted 243.4% y.o.y. for 2024.

December's survey estimated a decrease of 2.6% in the real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, constructing a worse scenario (-0.2 p.p.) compared to the previous survey. This fall is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which analysts reduced their estimations by 0.9 p.p. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecasted a drop of 2.7%, on average, in the GDP for 2024. REM analysts forecasted a growth of 2.3% y.o.y. for 2025.

The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 6.6% in the economically active population (-0.4 p.p. against the previous survey) in the fourth quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecasted that the rate would be 6.5% in the same period. REM participants estimated an unemployment rate of 7.5% of the economically active population for 2024, remaining unchanged against the previous survey.

They forecasted that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 108.3% APR (8.9% effective monthly rate) in January, while top-10 analysts estimated a 107.56% for the same month, on average.

In turn, REM analysts predicted that the nominal exchange rate for January 2024 would average ARS820.3/USD. Top-10 analysts are virtually on the same track, forecasting a nominal exchange rate of ARS834.9/USD. The year-over-year variable implicit in forecasts for December 2024 is 164.8%.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD83,952 million and CIF imports would amount to USD69,372 for 2024.

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS666.4 billion for 2024, which is clearly in contrast to the deficit of ARS928.9 billion forecasted in the previous survey. The top-10 analysts on average predicted a deficit of ARS57 billion for 2024.

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January 11, 2024