This report, published on December 5, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from November 27 to November 29, 2024. It includes estimates from 42 analysts, 29 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 13 are financial institutions from Argentina.
In the eleventh survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.8% for November (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). For December, they estimated a monthly inflation rate of 2.9%, and 118.8% y.o.y. for 2024 (down 1.2 p.p. against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 2.7% for November, 2.9% for December, and 118.9% y.o.y. for 2024 (-1.3 p.p. against the previous survey). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecast 2.7% for November and December, and 104.3% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.8% against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts expected a core inflation rate of 2.7% for November and 104.8% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.6 p.p. against the previous survey).
In November's survey, REM analysts estimated a decrease of 3.0% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023 (a decrease that is 0.6 p.p. smaller than the previous survey). Moreover, top-10 analysts forecast a drop of 3.2%, on average, in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first quarter because, according to the forecasts received, the activity level started to recover in the third quarter of 2024, going up 3.4% s.a. against the previous quarter. REM analysts forecast an average growth rate of 4.2% y.o.y. for 2025 (+0.6 p.p. against the previous survey).
The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.8% in the economically active population (unchanged against the previous survey) in the third quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecast that the rate would be 7.6% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 8.0% for the last quarter of 2024.
They forecast that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 35.84% APR (2.9% effective monthly rate) in December. Top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 36.65% for December.
The median of REM forecasts for the average nominal exchange rate for December stood at ARS1,021/USD1, resulting in an exchange rate monthly increase of 2.0% on average. Top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS1,043/USD1 for December. REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,250/USD1 for December 2025. The year-on-year change rate implicit in forecasts is 59.1% for December 2024, and 22.3% for December 2025.
Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD78,740 million (USD876 million more than in the previous survey), and CIF imports would amount to USD60,847 million (USD840 million more than in the previous survey) for 2024. The expected annual trade surplus increased by USD36 million.
Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS9.0 trillion for 2024 (up ARS37 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS9.6 trillion for 2024. None of the analysts expect primary deficit for 2024 or 2025.
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December 5, 2024