Market Expectations Survey (REM), July 2024
This report, published on August 6, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from July 29 to July 31, 2024. It includes estimates from 42 analysts, 28 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 14 are financial institutions from Argentina.
In the seventh survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 3.9% for July (-0.9 p.p. against the previous REM). For August, they estimated 3.8%, and 127.4% y.o.y. for 2024 (-0.9 p.p. and -10.7 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecast this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 3.9% for July, 3.6% for August, and 122.2% y.o.y. for 2024 (-14.4 p.p. against the previous survey). Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecast 3.6% for July and 3.4% for August. Top-10 analysts expected a core inflation rate of 3.5% for July, 3.0% for August, and 107% y.o.y. for 2024 (-7.8 p.p. against the previous REM).
July's survey estimated a decrease of 3.7% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, the forecast compared to the previous survey remaining the same. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecast a drop of 3.5%, on average, in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first half of the year. According to the forecasts received, the activity level will start to recover in the third quarter of 2024, up 0.4% s.a. REM analysts forecast an average growth rate of 3.2% y.o.y. for 2025.
The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.9% in the economically active population (unchanged against the previous survey) in the second quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecast that the rate would be 7.7% in the same period (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 8.1% for the last quarter of 2024.
They forecast that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 37.5% APR (3.1% effective monthly rate) in August, slightly rising to reach 37.9% APR in December; while top-10 analysts estimated a rate of 38.6% for August.
The median of REM forecasts predicted that the average nominal exchange rate for August would stand at ARS942.5/USD1, resulting in an exchange rate monthly increase of 2% on average. Top-10 analysts forecast an average nominal exchange rate of ARS942.6/USD1. REM analysts forecast a nominal exchange rate of ARS1,088.2/USD1 for December. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 69.5%, -13.3p.p. against the previous REM.
Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports would reach USD77,194 million (USD905 million less than in the previous survey), and CIF imports would amount to USD58,512 million (USD1,621 million less than in the previous survey) for 2024. The resulting annual trade surplus would expand by USD717 million.
Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS7,384 billion for 2024 (+ARS1,308 billion against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS7,349 billion for 2024. None of the analysts expect primary deficit for 2024.
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August 6, 2024
