Market Expectations Survey (REM), March 2024

This report, published on April 8, 2024, discloses the results of the survey conducted from March 25 to March 27, 2024. It includes estimates from 37 analysts, 24 of which are local and international consulting firms and research centers, and the other 13 are financial institutions from Argentina.

In the third survey of 2024, analysts estimated a monthly inflation rate of 12.5% for March (-1.8 p.p. against the previous REM). For April, they estimated a monthly inflation of 10.8% and a rate of 189.4% y.o.y. for 2024 (-1.3 p.p. and -20.8 p.p., respectively, against the previous survey). Top-10 analysts (those who most accurately forecasted this variable in the past) predicted an inflation rate of 12.4% for March, 11.1% for April, and 203.8% y.o.y. for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, REM participants forecasted 179% y.o.y. for 2024 (-27.3 p.p. against the previous REM).

March's survey estimated a decrease of 3.5% in real GDP for 2024 compared to the average for 2023, outlining the same prospect compared to the previous survey. Moreover, top-10 analysts forecasted a drop of 4.1%, on average, in GDP for 2024. The fall is concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which analysts estimated a reduction of 3.8% of GDP (-0.1 p.p. against the previous REM). According to the forecasts received, the activity level will start to recover in the third quarter of 2024, at 0.6% quarterly s.a. Moreover, forecasts predict an expected acceleration in the growth rate by about 4.1% s.a. for the fourth quarter of 2024. REM analysts forecasted an average growth rate of 3% y.o.y. for 2025.

The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate would have a share of 7.1% in the economically active population (-0.6 p.p. against the previous survey) in the first quarter of 2024, while top-10 analysts forecasted that the rate would also be 7.1% in the same period. REM analysts estimated an unemployment rate of 7.5% for the last quarter of 2024.

They forecasted that the BADLAR rate at private banks would be 71.9% APR (5.9% effective monthly rate) in April, decreasing to 60% by December; while top-10 analysts estimated for April a rate of 73% on average.

The median of REM analysts predicted that the nominal exchange rate for April 2024 would average ARS876.3/USD1 (-ARS51.5/USD1 against the previous REM). Top-10 analysts forecasted an average nominal exchange rate of ARS885.3/USD1. The year-on-year change rate as of December 2024 implicit in forecasts is 124%, -26.8 p.p. against the previous REM.

Regarding the foreign trade of goods, REM analysts predicted that FOB exports for 2024 would reach USD80,842 million and CIF imports would amount to USD65,162 million, forecasting a decrease against the previous REM (-USD771 million and -USD1,660 million, respectively).

Finally, REM analysts projected that the primary fiscal surplus of the non-financial national public sector would stand at ARS4,924 billion for 2024 (+ARS4,138 billion against the previous REM). The top-10 analysts on average predicted a primary surplus of ARS4,152 billion for 2024. .

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April 8, 2024

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