Pesce: “Projections Suggest that Argentina’s Trade Surplus Will Climb to USD41,000 Million in 2030”

The President of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, talked about the estimates on future Argentine exports and highlighted the strong positive impact they will have on trade surplus. “Projections suggest that Argentina's trade surplus will climb to USD41,000 million in 2030,” he pointed out.

“I think there is some promising news for Argentina. In 2019, Argentina exported USD60,000 million, and that was that. The good news is that in 2022 Argentina exported nearly USD90,000 million and, looking ahead, export estimates of energy, mining and the rest of the goods are very promising,” he highlighted.

“As regards energy, exports are expected to grow between 2022 and 2030 from USD8,000 million to USD36,000 million; mining, from USD3,800 million to USD15,000 million; and the rest of goods, from USD37,000 million to USD54,000 million,” said Pesce. He then added: “This means trade surplus will climb to over USD20,000 million (possibly USD25,000 million) in 2024; to USD30,000 million in 2026; and to USD41,000 million in 2030.” Pesce participated today at the closing of the 2023 Money and Banking Conference organized by the BCRA under the heading “Challenges for Macroeconomic and Financial Stability in the Current International Context.” It was a panel with central bank authorities, in which Beltrán de Ramón (Central Bank of Chile), José Cantero Sienra (Central Bank of Paraguay) and Ásgeir Jónsson (Central Bank of Iceland) also participated.

The President of the BCRA analyzed external constraints and other disruptive factors that play a key role in inflation dynamics in Argentina, and highlighted the elements required to reduce them. “It is necessary to address external constraints and inflationary inertia, and to develop the capital market,” added Pesce.

In this sense, he referred to the strong effect of inertia on the level of prices and the importance of developing the local capital market. “Argentina has a very small capital market: 6% of financing from the financial sector to the private sector, 6% of GDP, and 8% of capitalization from the capital market in the Argentine economy,” he highlighted.

Solving these problems is complex since it not only involves macroeconomic problems but also matters related to the economic agents’ behavior. “From the moment statistics started to be produced in this regard, Argentina has built up foreign assets amounting to USD190,000 million. In the balance of payments, Argentina is creditor of the world for USD380,000 million. Since 2006 Argentina has imported US banknotes for USD171,000 million,” he said, and then concluded: “Growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Therefore, as external constraints and inflationary inertia are addressed, it is also necessary to develop the capital market.”

July 5, 2023